A new study published in a scientific journal reveals that escalating extreme heat events, exacerbated by climate change and shifts in land use, pose a severe threat to vertebrate biodiversity. Researchers project that up to 8,000 species could face global extinction by the end of the century due to these environmental pressures.
Study Findings
- Up to 7,895 vertebrate species may face global extinction by 2100 due to extreme heat and land use changes.
- This threat could cover 52% of their habitat range in the worst-case scenario.
- Amphibians and reptiles are particularly vulnerable, facing greater exposure to unsuitable conditions than birds and mammals.
Climate Scenarios Explored
- The study analyzed scenarios ranging from SSP1-RCP2.6 (sustainable, low warming) to SSP5-RCP8.5 (high emissions, business-as-usual).
- These scenarios project different futures for temperature, food security, and urban development.
- The SSP3-RCP7.0 scenario, representing regional conflict, showed compounded impacts of land use and heat, leading to significant habitat unsuitability.
Vulnerable Species
- Under the SSP3-RCP7.0 scenario, the African bush viper is expected to lose 81% of its area to land use changes and 76% to extreme heat by 2100.
- Birds, mammals, and reptiles face a decrease in suitable areas significantly higher than under some other high emission scenarios.
- Amphibians face almost 13% exposure in high emission scenarios, twice that of the SSP5-RCP8.5 scenario.
- Species with smaller range sizes and higher IUCN threat categories are found to be more exposed.
Geographic Hotspots
- The study noted that the synergistic impact of climate and land use changes is most pronounced in regions like the Sahel (Sudan, Chad, Mali), the Middle East (Afghanistan, Iraq, Saudi Arabia), and Brazil.
- In the worst-case scenario, most species will face unsuitable climate conditions in vast areas across Brazil, Bolivia, Paraguay, North Africa, the Middle East, India, and Western Australia.
Additional Stressors
- Scientists warn that additional factors such as interspecific interactions, wildfires, droughts, pollution, and invasive species can interact with extreme heat events and land use changes.
- Though not included in the primary analysis, these factors can further exacerbate biodiversity loss.
Impact
- This news highlights a severe environmental crisis with potential long-term ecological and economic consequences. While not directly impacting stock prices today, it underscores risks related to climate change for industries reliant on stable ecosystems (e.g., agriculture, tourism, pharmaceuticals). It also increases the focus on Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) factors for investors.
- Impact Rating: 3
Difficult Terms Explained
- Vertebrates: Animals with a backbone or spinal column, including mammals, birds, reptiles, amphibians, and fish.
- Land Use Change: Alteration of the Earth's land cover, often due to human activities like agriculture, urbanization, or deforestation.
- SSP (Shared Socioeconomic Pathways): Scenarios that describe different plausible futures for society and the environment, used to model climate change impacts.
- RCP (Representative Concentration Pathways): Scenarios that describe different levels of greenhouse gas emissions and their resulting radiative forcing (warming effect).
- Radiative Forcing: The difference between the amount of energy from the sun that is absorbed by the Earth and the amount of energy radiated back into space. A positive forcing leads to warming.
- Biodiversity: The variety of life in the world or in a particular habitat or ecosystem.
- IUCN: The International Union for Conservation of Nature, a global organization working on conservation and sustainable use of natural resources.
- Interspecific Interactions: Interactions between different species, such as predation, competition, or symbiosis.
- Anthropogenic: Originating from human activity.