Whalesbook
Growth Outlook Remains Robust
The brokerage anticipates a healthy growth trajectory over FY25–28E, forecasting revenue, EBITDA, and adjusted profit after tax to grow at a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 12.3%, 25.1%, and 31.9% respectively. This surge is expected to be propelled by improving volumes and steady price trends. Volume growth is estimated at a significant 14.4% in FY26E, followed by 8.5% in FY27E and 9.3% in FY28E, while realizations are projected to increase at a more modest pace of 2.4% in FY26E, 1.0% in FY27E, and 1.0% in FY28E.
Margin Expansion Expected
EBITDA per tonne is seen climbing from Rs 924 in FY25 and Rs 1,007 in the Q3 FY26 quarter to Rs 1,104 in FY26E, Rs 1,226 in FY27E, and Rs 1,334 in FY28E. This upward trend in profitability underscores strengthening margin visibility for the company.
Valuation Concerns Override Positives
Despite these favorable projections, Dolat Capital's analysis indicates that the current market price of UltraTech Cement has largely incorporated these anticipated positives, thereby capping significant upside potential. Consequently, the brokerage has reaffirmed its 'Reduce' rating on the stock. The revised target price has been set at ₹13,142. The valuation framework employed by Dolat Capital for this target price is based on 16 times the consolidated FY28E Enterprise Value to EBITDA, augmented by 50% of the FY28E Capital Work-in-Progress (CWIP) and the stake in Star Cement valued at one times its price-to-book value.