Whalesbook
Brokerage Bullish on NHPC Post Q4 Beat
Brokerage firm Elara has initiated a bullish stance on National Hydroelectric Power Corporation (NHPC), maintaining a BUY recommendation and setting a target price of ₹97. This valuation suggests an upside potential of approximately 24.1% from current trading levels, making the state-owned entity an attractive prospect under the ₹100 mark.
The company's fourth-quarter performance underpinned this optimism, with net profit skyrocketing 71% year-on-year to ₹1,464 crore. Operational revenue also saw a significant jump, rising 20% to ₹2,816 crore compared to the same period last year. This strong financial showing positions NHPC favorably as investors assess its future growth trajectory.
Growth Drivers and Future Outlook
Elara's analysts project FY26 revenue to climb a substantial 33% year-on-year, driven by forthcoming capacity additions. Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation, and Amortization (EBITDA) are also expected to mirror this growth, with a projected increase of 35% year-on-year. This forecast highlights a clear path for improved profitability.
Management guidance indicates the commissioning of five hydro projects in FY27, a significant expansion. However, an estimated under-recovery of ₹4.5 billion at the Subansiri and Parbati projects warrants attention. The brokerage believes that the stock could undergo a significant rerating once the Subansiri project is fully commissioned, unlocking further value.
Current Market Performance
As of midday trading on May 19, 2026, NHPC shares were trading approximately 1% higher, reaching ₹78.48. The stock touched an intraday high of ₹78.85, reflecting positive market sentiment following the results announcement and brokerage upgrade. Despite recent monthly and yearly declines, NHPC has delivered strong long-term returns, gaining 78% over three years and over 200% in five years.