JSP's Profit Outlook: Key Figures

Brokerage firm ICICI Securities forecasts Jindal Steel & Power (JSP) will report a net profit of Rs 925 crore for the fiscal fourth quarter ending March 2026. This projection represents a sharp 270.4% rise from the previous quarter, indicating a strong profit recovery. Year-over-year, net profit is expected to grow a more modest 2.9%. Net sales are forecast to increase 11.9% year-on-year to Rs 14,751.7 crore, alongside a 13.2% jump from the prior quarter. Earnings Before Interest, Tax, Depreciation, and Amortisation (EBITDA) are estimated to climb 2.3% year-on-year and a significant 42.2% quarter-on-quarter, reaching Rs 2,322.5 crore. The figures highlight a steady annual performance but a substantial operational improvement in the most recent period.

Support from India's Metals Sector

Jindal Steel's forecast aligns with a positive outlook for India's metals and mining sector. Recovery is being driven by stronger domestic demand, increased infrastructure spending, and rising commodity prices, especially for steel, which has seen significant price hikes since December 2025. Global supply chain disruptions are also boosting commodity prices, while steady domestic consumption supports a favorable market for steel producers. Sector-wide EBITDA is expected to grow due to better prices and sustained demand, with optimism extending into early FY27. However, volatility in input costs remains a risk.

Valuation Compared to Peers

As of April 2026, Jindal Steel & Power (JSP) has a market capitalization of about ₹1.27 to ₹1.31 lakh crore. Its Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio over the past twelve months has ranged around 44.89, with some figures showing wider fluctuations between 34.0 and 66.3. Comparing JSP to its peers, Tata Steel typically trades at lower multiples (P/E from roughly 26.4 to 35.61, TTM around 28.82-30.70). JSW Steel generally commands higher multiples (around 37.88 to 50.55, with some estimates above 54.74). This places JSP's valuation competitively within the sector, though its P/E ratio can exceed that of established players like Tata Steel.

Past Concerns and Challenges

Despite the positive earnings forecast and sector recovery, Jindal Steel & Power has faced challenges. The company's stock was downgraded to 'Hold' by MarketsMOJO in October 2024. The downgrade cited flat recent results and a decline in key financial metrics, even as past performance and management efficiency were acknowledged. A reported net profit decline of -52.12% over the past year raises concerns about sustained annual profitability. The company's history also includes notable controversies. In July 2019, industrialist Naveen Jindal and other officials were ordered to stand trial for charges related to coal block allocation. In August 2021, proxy advisory firms questioned the valuation and transparency of a proposal to sell JSP's power business to a promoter group. Allegations of misconduct against a CEO of a firm linked to Jindal entities surfaced in July 2024, leading to an investigation ordered by Naveen Jindal. A dispute over creative credits for a Cannes Lions winning campaign with Wieden+Kennedy India in March 2024 was later settled out of court. These past events, alongside recent flat results, are points of consideration for governance and execution risks.

Looking Ahead: Strategy and Risks

India's metals and mining sector is expected to continue its recovery, supported by strong domestic fundamentals and growing demand from infrastructure and manufacturing. For Jindal Steel, the strong projected quarterly growth suggests improved financial health in the near term. Key risks include ongoing input cost volatility and global geopolitical instability, which could affect profitability and operations. Management is focused on operational efficiencies, expanding capacity at the Angul plant, and increasing the proportion of value-added products to drive future performance.