Whalesbook
Systematix Lowers Lupin Target Following Q4 Performance
Systematix has revised its target price for Lupin Ltd. to ₹2,408, down from ₹2,454, while reiterating a 'Hold' rating. The brokerage also reduced its earnings per share forecast for FY28 by 2%. This adjustment follows Lupin's reported significant jump in fourth-quarter fiscal year 2026 revenue, which rose 32% year-on-year to ₹74,747 million. Profit after tax surged 89% year-on-year to ₹14,603 million, with EBITDA showing a robust 68% year-on-year increase.
Competition Threatens Near-Term Earnings
Lupin's near-term earnings could face pressure due to anticipated competition for its largest portfolio product, gTolvaptan, starting in FY27. Further competitive challenges may arise for gMirabegron, which Systematix forecasts for the second half of FY28.
Growth Recovery Expected Post-FY28
Despite these near-term challenges, Systematix projects a growth recovery after FY28. This outlook hinges on Lupin's ability to successfully launch and commercialize its biosimilar pipeline, which includes products like Pegfilgrastim, ranibizumab, and etanercept. Approvals in the respiratory inhaler segment are also key, with products such as gDulera expected to contribute.
Pipeline Expansion Continues
Lupin is actively pursuing regulatory filings for other respiratory inhalers, including Spiriva Respimat, Symbicort, and Advair HFA. These products are seen as potential revenue streams expected to be commercialized over the next two to four years, supporting the company's long-term growth strategy. Meanwhile, Nirmal Bang forecasts Lupin to achieve revenue, Ebitda, and PAT growth of 4%, -8%, and -13% respectively over the FY26-28 period.