The Revenue Surge and Operational Gains
SJVN's stock experienced a notable uplift, trading up over 5% to ₹81.50 on Thursday, February 12, 2026, its highest level in over a month. This surge was primarily triggered by the company's impressive third-quarter fiscal year 2026 (Q3 FY26) financial performance. Consolidated revenue from operations climbed a significant 61.2% year-over-year, reaching ₹1,081.97 crore from ₹671 crore in the prior year. This top-line expansion supported a substantial 51% increase in net profit, which stood at ₹224.31 crore, up from ₹148.75 crore year-over-year. The operational backbone for this growth included the phased commercial operations of SJVN Green Energy's 1,000 MW Bikaner Solar Power Project and the commissioning of one unit of the 1,320 MW Buxar Thermal Power Project by subsidiary SJIVN Thermal Private Limited. Complementing these financial and operational highlights, SJVN's board declared an interim dividend of ₹1.15 per equity share, with a record date set for February 20, 2026.
The Analytical Deep Dive: Valuation and Sector Context
SJVN's current market capitalization hovers around ₹30,408 crore, with a Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio of approximately 44-48 as of early February 2026. This valuation places it differently against its peers in the burgeoning Indian power sector. For instance, state-owned giant NTPC, with a significantly larger market cap of ₹3.56 trillion, trades at a more conservative P/E of 14.50 and has seen a 20.89% stock gain over the past year. Power Grid Corporation, another Maharatna company with a market cap of ₹2.73 trillion, trades at a P/E of 17.6. In contrast, Adani Green Energy, a leader in renewables, commands a higher P/E of 94.25 and a market cap of ₹1.40 trillion, though its stock performance has been more volatile, down 12.3% year-over-year. The broader Indian power sector is propelled by rising electricity demand and a strong governmental push towards renewable energy, with ambitious targets for non-fossil fuel capacity. Solar power generation, in particular, surged 22% in 2025, underscoring sector tailwinds. While SJVN's recent results align with this positive sector momentum, its historical stock reactions to earnings have been varied. A year prior, on February 12, 2024, SJVN shares entered a 20% lower circuit after its Q3 profit missed estimates by a wide margin. This contrasts sharply with the current positive reaction, highlighting sensitivity to earnings quality and execution.
The Forensic Bear Case: Execution Hurdles and Leverage Concerns
Despite the positive Q3 narrative, several factors warrant caution. Analysts at Elara Capital, while maintaining a 'Buy' rating, reduced their target price to ₹120 from ₹131 due to "slower-than-expected project commissioning". This points to potential execution delays that could impact future earnings, as evidenced by a projected 10-9% reduction in earnings for FY27-28E. Adding to these concerns is SJVN's announcement to raise up to ₹1,000 crore through the issuance of debentures. This move, while potentially funding expansion, will increase the company's consolidated debt and leverage, a point of financial strain highlighted by a declining Debt Service Coverage Ratio (DSCR) in Q3 FY26. Furthermore, the Devasari Hydro Project faces ongoing uncertainty due to Supreme Court proceedings. The company also operates under provisional billing for some hydro stations, pending final tariff orders, introducing revenue volatility. Analyst sentiment itself is divided, with some maintaining 'Sell' ratings and an average target price of ₹87, suggesting a potential downside, while others recommend 'Hold'. This mixed outlook contrasts with the immediate market optimism following the earnings release.
The Future Outlook
Management has articulated an ambitious plan to achieve 25 GW installed capacity. The company continues to focus on expanding its portfolio across hydro, renewable, and thermal power projects. The Indian power sector is poised for significant growth, driven by increasing energy demands and government policies favoring renewables. While sector fundamentals are robust, SJVN's ability to translate these opportunities into consistent, timely execution and manage its growing debt burden will be critical for its long-term valuation, especially as it aims to leverage capital for further capacity expansion.