Middle East oil exports reached up to 22.5 million barrels per day in late September, beating pre-war averages. While supply holds steady through new routes, ongoing maritime attacks and rising insurance costs remain key risks for the global energy supply chain.
Middle East crude oil exports have shown surprising resilience, climbing to between 19.5 million and 22.5 million barrels per day during late September 2026. This performance comfortably exceeds the 18 million barrels per day average recorded between March 2025 and February 2026, defying the increasingly volatile security environment near the Strait of Hormuz.
The recovery in export volumes is largely driven by a major shift in logistics. To avoid the high risks associated with the Strait of Hormuz, energy exporters have significantly increased the use of alternative routes, such as the East-West pipeline in Saudi Arabia and the Fujairah pipeline in the UAE. Currently, about 40% of crude exports from the Middle East are bypassing the Strait, compared to just 17% before the conflict began in early 2025.
Despite these successful adaptations, the transit environment remains dangerous. Maritime intelligence data shows that attacks on commercial shipping have reached a new intensity, with at least 16 tanker attacks recorded in September 2026 alone—the highest monthly total since the regional conflict escalated. A notable incident occurred on October 1, when the Kuwait-flagged tanker 'Kazimah III' was struck by a projectile while transiting the area. Although the crew was evacuated safely, such events highlight that maritime transit remains under constant threat.
For investors and market observers, the situation presents a dual reality. While oil is successfully reaching global markets, the cost of doing so has risen. The need for increased security measures, higher freight rates, and elevated war-risk insurance premiums are adding to operational expenses. Furthermore, the industry's reliance on specific pipeline infrastructure, such as the Yanbu port facilities, creates single points of failure. If these critical land-based or terminal assets were to be disrupted, the recent recovery in export volumes could be reversed quickly.
Going forward, the primary monitorables for the sector will be the stability of these alternative export routes and the trend in insurance costs. Any further escalation that impacts key pipelines or terminal infrastructure could lead to supply shortages and increased volatility in energy markets. Investors will likely watch for updates on transit security and the ability of energy companies to maintain these high export volumes amidst the ongoing regional tension.