MRPL Surges on Q3 Earnings Beat; Analyst Sets Rs162 Target

ENERGY
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AuthorRiya Kapoor|Published at:
MRPL Surges on Q3 Earnings Beat; Analyst Sets Rs162 Target
Overview

Mangalore Refinery and Petrochemicals (MRPL) delivered a stellar Q3FY26, posting EBITDA of Rs27.8bn against expectations of Rs18.5bn. Net profit nearly tripled year-on-year to Rs14.5bn. Higher throughput and fuel cracks fueled the surge, though crack spreads have since moderated. Prabhudas Lilladher reiterates an 'Accumulate' rating with a revised Rs162 target price.

Financial Performance

Mangalore Refinery and Petrochemicals (MRPL) reported exceptional third-quarter fiscal year 2026 results, significantly surpassing analyst expectations. The company posted an EBITDA of Rs27.8 billion, a substantial increase from Rs14.9 billion in the previous quarter and well above Prabhudas Lilladher's estimate of Rs18.5 billion and the consensus of Rs21.1 billion. Net profit rose dramatically to Rs14.5 billion, compared to Rs6.4 billion in Q2FY26 and Rs3.0 billion in the year-ago period.

Operational Drivers

This strong financial performance was driven by robust operational metrics. Throughput increased by 6.1% quarter-on-quarter and 2.2% year-on-year to 4.7 million metric tons, exceeding the forecast of 4.4 million metric tons. Higher fuel crack margins and improved refinery utilization rates were key contributors to the profitability surge. However, market observers note that crack spreads have since moderated, returning to levels seen in the second quarter of fiscal year 2026.

Future Growth

Looking ahead, MRPL plans to significantly expand its marketing presence. The company is targeting an increase in its retail outlets to 1,000 over the next five years, signaling a strategic push into downstream fuel sales. Prabhudas Lilladher has incorporated a Gross Refining Margin (GRM) forecast of USD7.6/7.5 per barrel for FY27/28E into its models.

Analyst Outlook

Prabhudas Lilladher has reiterated its 'ACCUMULATE' rating on MRPL shares. The brokerage firm has revised its target price (TP) to Rs162 per share, down from Rs168 previously. This new target is based on a multiple of 6.0x December FY27 EV/EBITDA. Concurrently, the firm has lowered the option value attributed to MRPL's foray into the chemicals sector to Rs22 billion from Rs45 billion, citing that commercialization remains several years away.

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