LNG traffic through the Strait of Hormuz reached 19-21 shipments in September, the highest volume since the February US-Iran conflict began. Despite this, transit levels remain 80% below pre-war averages, as vessels use 'dark transits' to bypass security risks. Ongoing supply constraints, evidenced by extended force majeure declarations and rising oil prices, continue to create uncertainty for global energy markets and import costs as winter approaches.
Liquefied natural gas (LNG) traffic through the Strait of Hormuz recorded a modest recovery in September, with 19 to 21 cargoes navigating the waterway. This activity level represents the highest transit volume since the escalation of the US-Iran conflict in February 2026. While the increase is a slight improvement, total transit remains approximately 80% below the volume seen before the start of the conflict, indicating that the supply chain remains under significant stress.
To navigate the heightened security environment, shipping operators have increasingly relied on clandestine tactics. Several vessels, including those associated with QatarEnergy such as the Al Kharaitiyat and Al Gharrafa, have been identified using dark transits. This involves deactivating Automatic Identification System (AIS) transponders while inside the waterway to avoid detection by regional military forces and surveillance systems. These ships typically reappear on tracking monitors only after exiting the sensitive zone, often near the Indian coast.
For global energy markets, this recovery is fragile. Brent crude prices have faced upward pressure, recently trading above $102 per barrel as tensions remain high. A critical challenge for importers, including India, is that the supply chain is not operating at full capacity. QatarEnergy, one of the world's largest LNG suppliers, has extended its force majeure declarations—legal notices stating that the company cannot fully meet its contractual obligations due to uncontrollable events—through the end of 2026. This limits the certainty of supply for many customers in Asia and Europe.
The coming months pose a specific risk to energy stability. The Northern Hemisphere is approaching the winter heating season, a period when demand for natural gas typically peaks. Any disruption in the Strait of Hormuz, which acts as a vital artery for approximately one-fifth of global energy supplies, could lead to sharp volatility in international energy pricing.
Investors and market observers are currently focused on whether these shipping volumes can be sustained despite the risks of drone and missile threats or further military escalation. The high cost of maritime security, including increased insurance premiums and the necessity for naval escorts, also keeps operational costs elevated. The primary monitorable in the coming weeks will be the consistency of these shipment numbers and whether the geopolitical standoff leads to further restrictions or if existing clandestine routes remain viable through the peak winter demand months.