India’s imports of Russian crude oil declined to $4.04 billion in September as refiners navigated uncertainty regarding US tariffs. While a recent US sanctions waiver provides temporary relief for energy procurement, rising global prices for Urals-grade crude to $90.7 per barrel remain a key concern for domestic refiners.
India’s intake of Russian crude oil saw a 12% decline in value during September, falling to $4.04 billion. This shift in procurement was primarily driven by concerns among domestic refiners regarding potential US tariffs on energy imports from Moscow. Major refining hubs experienced varying degrees of volume contraction, with Jamnagar reporting a 27% drop, Paradip falling by 21%, and Vadinar recording an 8% decrease. Despite these adjustments, Vadinar remained a significant intake point for Russian barrels.
Financial pressure for refiners increased alongside volume volatility, as the cost of Urals-grade crude climbed to an average of $90.7 per barrel in September, a 32% increase compared to the previous month. This upward trend in pricing, combined with the volume reduction, impacted the total value of hydrocarbon imports, which fell to $4.1 billion in September from $5.39 billion in August.
Strategic relief arrived in mid-October when the US government issued a policy waiver citing national interest, which effectively eased the immediate threat of trade barriers. This development provides Indian refiners with a temporary window to stabilize their energy supply chains without the imminent risk of punitive duties. While analysts anticipate that daily import volumes may maintain a range of 1.8 to 1.9 million barrels, the temporary nature of this waiver implies that refiners will need to continue balancing their procurement strategies to manage geopolitical risks.
For investors, the key monitorable remains the profitability of Indian refiners. Rising crude costs can place pressure on operating margins if refiners are unable to pass these expenses to consumers. Furthermore, while the current US waiver offers breathing room, the long-term sustainability of Russian crude imports depends on evolving global trade regulations and the volatility of energy prices. Market participants will likely track monthly import data and refinery capacity utilization as indicators of how companies are managing the shifting trade landscape.