India's $8.3 Billion Exports Remain at Risk Despite US Tariff Case Uncertainty

The US Supreme Court is currently reviewing the legality of certain tariff measures imposed by former President Donald Trump. However, a detailed analysis indicates that even if these specific tariffs are invalidated, a significant portion of India's exports to the United States will remain subject to existing duties.\n\nThese ongoing duties are levied under Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962. This section allows the US to impose tariffs on imports deemed critical to its national security. Unlike some of Trump's other trade actions, these tariffs are based on specific investigations rather than presidential emergency powers.\n\nAccording to data, India's exports in these Section 232-covered categories amounted to $8.3 billion in 2024. This represents 10.4 percent of India's total exports to the US, which stood at $80 billion. Therefore, approximately one in every ten dollars of India's exports to America is still at risk, irrespective of the Supreme Court's verdict on Trump's measures.\n\nIndia's reliance on the US market is more pronounced for these tariff-sensitive products. While the US accounts for 18.3 percent of India's total global exports, this share jumps to 22.7 percent for products covered under Section 232. The most significant exposures are in the automobile sector ($3.9 billion), steel ($2.5 billion), and aluminium ($800 million), which collectively make up over 85 percent of India's trade at risk.\n\nImpact\nThis situation creates ongoing uncertainty for Indian exporters in key sectors like automobiles, steel, and aluminium. It could affect their revenue streams, profitability, and export volumes to the US. The concentrated nature of India's export base in these sectors towards the US market makes them particularly vulnerable to US trade policy shifts. Rating: 7/10.\n\nDefinitions:\nSection 232 of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962: A United States law that allows the President to impose restrictions or tariffs on imported goods if they are determined to threaten national security.\nReciprocal Tariffs: Tariffs imposed by one country in response to, or to match, tariffs imposed by another country, aiming for a balance in trade terms.\nUS Trade Representative (USTR): The U.S. government agency responsible for developing and recommending United States trade policy and leading international trade negotiations.