A new report from the OECD and FAO forecasts that agricultural workers in wealthy nations will earn $22,155 annually by 2035, compared to just $1,100 in South Asia. This widening divide highlights long-term disparities in technology adoption, mechanization, and land access that continue to impact global agricultural productivity and food security.
The global agricultural sector faces a widening income disparity over the next decade, according to a joint report from the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) and the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO). By 2035, agricultural workers in high-income nations are expected to earn roughly 20 times more than those in South Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. The report forecasts annual gross agricultural income per worker to reach $22,155 in wealthy countries, while workers in lower-income regions may see an increase to only $1,100 from current levels of about $930.
Drivers of Global Agricultural Productivity
While global agricultural production is anticipated to grow by 13% over the next ten years, this growth will remain uneven. The primary factor behind the income gap is the difference in productivity levels between regions. High-income regions like North America, Western Europe, and Oceania benefit from large-scale landholdings, advanced mechanization, and consistent investment in modern farming technology. In contrast, many agricultural areas in South Asia continue to rely on smaller landholdings and limited access to the latest technological tools.
The data indicates that the expected 9% global rise in real gross income per farm worker will be driven largely by productivity improvements rather than significant increases in commodity prices. The OECD and FAO suggest that commodity prices are likely to remain relatively stable throughout this period, meaning that profit growth for farmers will rely heavily on efficiency gains and cost management rather than price surges.
Environmental and Sustainability Pressures
Beyond income disparities, the sector faces significant environmental challenges. The projected production increases are expected to lead to a 6.5% rise in direct agricultural greenhouse gas emissions over the coming decade. Livestock farming and the use of synthetic fertilizers are identified as the primary contributors to this environmental pressure.
For investors and policymakers, this report underscores a critical tension in the global agricultural landscape. Balancing the need for increased food production with the requirements for environmental sustainability and emission reduction will likely necessitate significant capital investment in greener technologies and sustainable farming practices. The report emphasizes that closing the technology gap will be essential to improve income levels in developing regions, which may influence future policy decisions and government subsidies for agricultural infrastructure in South Asia.