Nifty 2026 Surge Alert! Nomura Predicts Stunning 13% Jump – Is Your Portfolio Ready?

Nifty Poised for Significant Gains in 2026, Says Nomura

Nomura Securities has projected the benchmark Nifty index to reach 29,300 by 2026, indicating a potential upside of approximately 13% from recent closing levels. This bullish outlook suggests a potentially strong year for Indian equity markets, driven by a confluence of positive domestic and international factors.

Drivers of Nomura's Optimism

The brokerage attributes its positive view to several key developments. Nomura's client note highlights calmer geopolitical tensions, stable macroeconomic conditions, and an anticipated cyclical recovery in economic activity and corporate earnings growth as foundational elements supporting their valuation outlook.

Valuation Advantage for Indian Equities

Nomura points out that the Indian equity market has underperformed most global markets for the past 14 months. This period of relative underperformance has brought the valuation premium of Indian stocks more in line with historical averages, presenting an attractive entry point for investors.

Global Institutions Echo Bullish Sentiment

Nomura's forecast aligns with recent predictions from other major global financial institutions. Goldman Sachs and HSBC have also recently shared bullish stances, predicting gains of around 12% and 10% for the Nifty and Sensex, respectively, in 2026.

Cautious View on Foreign Capital Flows

Despite the positive outlook on market performance, Nomura expressed a cautious tone regarding overseas capital inflows. The firm does not anticipate a sharp increase in foreign portfolio investments (FPIs) but expects a marginal improvement. Nomura suggested that if global rallies moderate and the AI trade cools, FPI interest in Indian equities might increase as valuations become more attractive compared to long-term averages.

Impact

• The projection suggests potential wealth creation for Indian investors through capital appreciation in equity markets.
• It could boost investor confidence, potentially attracting more domestic retail participation and a gradual increase in foreign investment.
• Companies within the Nifty, especially those benefiting from economic recovery and earnings growth, may see improved stock performance.
• An impact rating of 8 out of 10.

Difficult Terms Explained

• Nifty: The benchmark Indian stock market index representing the weighted average of 50 of the largest Indian companies listed on the National Stock Exchange of India.
• Nomura: A leading Japanese financial services company providing a wide range of financial services, including investment banking, securities, and asset management.
• Benchmark: A standard or point of reference against which performance is measured. In this context, the Nifty is the benchmark for Indian equities.
• Geopolitics: The study of the influence of geography on politics and international relations. Calmer geopolitics suggests reduced international conflict or tension.
• Macros: Refers to macroeconomic factors, which are large-scale economic indicators such as inflation, GDP growth, interest rates, and unemployment. Stable macros imply predictability and low volatility in these factors.
• Cyclical Recovery: A phase in the business cycle where economic activity rebounds after a period of downturn, leading to increased production, consumption, and investment.
• Corporate Earnings Growth: An increase in the profits generated by companies over a specific period.
• Valuation Premium: The extent to which a stock or market trades at a higher price relative to its fundamental value (e.g., earnings, book value) compared to its peers or historical levels.
• Foreign Portfolio Investments (FPIs): Investments made by foreign investors in the financial assets of a country, such as stocks and bonds, without gaining control over the management of the company.