India's US Exports Show Monthly Uptick Amid Tariffs; Year-on-Year Figures Decline

In October, India's merchandise exports to the United States reached $6.3 billion, demonstrating a notable month-on-month increase of 14.5% from September. This growth, highlighted by the Global Trade and Research Initiative (GTRI), is the first positive monthly trend observed since May. This performance occurred despite the significant 50% tariffs imposed by US President Donald Trump on Indian goods, with 25% of this tariff being a penalty for India's crude oil imports from Russia.

Despite the encouraging month-on-month recovery, the year-on-year figures reveal a decline. October's export value of $6.3 billion was 8.58% lower than the $6.9 billion recorded in October 2024. The GTRI also pointed out that overall shipments to the US have fallen by nearly 28.4% between May and October, resulting in a loss of over $2.5 billion in monthly export value. Specific product-wise data for October is not yet available, but it is tentatively assumed that tariff-exempt sectors like smartphones and pharmaceuticals may have performed better.

Impact

This news indicates a mixed trade scenario between India and the US. While month-on-month improvements are positive signs, the year-on-year decline and overall drop in shipments due to tariffs could affect export-oriented businesses and overall trade balance. This warrants attention from investors monitoring trade policies and their economic consequences. Rating: 6/10

Difficult Terms Explained:

Tariffs: Taxes imposed by a government on imported or exported goods. In this case, the US imposed tariffs on Indian goods.

Merchandise Exports: Goods that are physically shipped from one country to another for sale.

Month-on-Month Increase: An increase in a value (like exports) from one month to the next.

Year-on-Year Decline: A decrease in a value from a specific period in one year to the same period in the previous year.

GTRI (Global Trade and Research Initiative): A research organization that provides analysis on trade and economic policies.