India's Private Capex Stalled by Capital Costs, Services Lead

ECONOMY
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AuthorAarav Shah|Published at:
India's Private Capex Stalled by Capital Costs, Services Lead
Overview

India's private capital expenditure (capex) faces persistent headwinds from structurally high costs of capital and deep-rooted structural impediments, according to the Economic Survey 2025–26. Despite robust public capex and healthier corporate balance sheets, private investment is not automatically materializing. The high cost of capital, linked to the current account deficit and reliance on foreign savings, is forcing companies to favor incremental expansions and the services sector over large-scale manufacturing ventures. Manufacturing faces significant 'hard constraints' like land and power, while services offer greater scalability with lower fixed capital requirements, making them the preferred route for investment despite broader economic growth.

The Stubborn Cost of Capital Barrier

The Economic Survey 2025–26 unequivocally identifies India's structurally high cost of capital as a primary constraint on private investment. This elevated cost is not merely a function of interest rates but a macroeconomic outcome stemming from a persistent current account deficit and a significant reliance on foreign savings, necessitating a risk premium that permeates the economy. Such conditions disincentivize long-gestation projects, leading financially sound firms to opt for less capital-intensive or incremental expansion strategies. For instance, manufacturing productivity in India is notably lower than in comparable economies like China and Vietnam, with a higher capital-to-output ratio required. While India's labor costs are competitive with China and Vietnam, the overall cost of capital, influenced by factors like corporate tax rates which can be higher than in Vietnam, remains a deterrent for substantial greenfield manufacturing investments.

Services Sector's Strategic Advantage

The survey's analysis highlights a clear strategic shift in private investment towards the services sector, a trend driven by its inherent advantages over manufacturing. Services firms can achieve scale with lower fixed capital, bypass the deficiencies in physical infrastructure, and adapt more swiftly to regulatory and market shifts. In contrast, manufacturing is encumbered by "hard constraints" related to land acquisition, power availability, logistics networks, skilled labor, and governance issues. This inherent disparity explains why private capital gravitated towards sectors like IT and financial services, which contribute significantly to the Gross Value Added (GVA)—approximately 55% of India's GVA originates from services—rather than manufacturing, which saw output growth of around 4.26% in FY 2024-25.

Navigating Global Headwinds and Unfulfilled Potential

Compounding these domestic challenges are escalating global uncertainties. Geopolitical risks, trade fragmentation, and volatile capital flows are making businesses increasingly cautious about committing to long-term investments, a sentiment echoed across developing economies facing similar pressures. The survey cautions against protectionist trade measures, advocating instead for more effective strategies such as lowering the cost of capital, enhancing logistics, and ensuring reliable energy supply. Crucially, the report emphasizes that increased public capital expenditure, while improving infrastructure, has not automatically catalyzed private investment. For public spending to effectively 'crowd in' private capital, it must be complemented by predictable policies, reduced input costs, and stronger institutional frameworks. A significant underleveraged tool identified is asset monetisation and disinvestment. While the National Monetisation Pipeline aimed to generate ₹10 lakh crore by FY25, cumulative monetisation reached approximately ₹3.85 lakh crore by FY2023-24, indicating substantial room for accelerated execution. This recycling of public capital is vital for funding new infrastructure and creating investable opportunities for private entities.

The Catalytic Gap

Despite these domestic and global complexities, India's economic fundamentals have shown resilience, evidenced by an S&P sovereign rating upgrade in August 2025. However, the disconnect between substantial public capex and subdued private investment underscores a persistent challenge. The Economic Survey's findings suggest that without decisive reforms addressing the cost of capital, institutional frictions, and fiscal incentives, the full potential of private investment, particularly in manufacturing, will remain constrained, making the services sector the default growth engine.

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