Indian Rupee Rebounds 49 Paise From Record Low After Oil Dip, RBI Watch

The Indian rupee gained 49 paise on Thursday, recovering from its record low to close at 96.37 against the US dollar. The recovery was driven by falling crude oil prices, easing geopolitical tensions, and anticipated intervention from the Reserve Bank of India (RBI).

## Geopolitical Risks and Oil Prices
While recent geopolitical events had put pressure on the rupee, traders are still monitoring ongoing risks and their impact on oil markets. The one-year forward rate for the rupee had previously reached the 100-per-dollar mark, suggesting a potential weakening trend for the USD/INR pair in the coming year.

## Trading Session Overview
The rupee opened trading at 96.25 against the dollar at the interbank foreign exchange market. It reached an early high of 96.05 before falling to a low of 96.60 during the day. By the end of Thursday's trading, the rupee settled at 96.37, a gain of 49 paise from Wednesday's close. On Wednesday, the rupee had hit an all-time low of 96.95 before closing at 96.86.

## Analyst Viewpoint
Dilip Parmar, Research Analyst at HDFC Securities, stated, "This recovery follows a retracement in crude oil prices amid tentative signs of easing geopolitical friction, alongside active central bank intervention. Moving forward, investor focus will remain anchored on geopolitical developments and the upcoming RBI monetary policy review." Parmar noted that technically, the spot USDINR pair sees strong support at 95.74 and immediate resistance at 96.50.

## Market Context
The dollar index, which measures the US dollar's strength against six major currencies, was up 0.22% at 99.30. Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, declined 0.75% to trade at USD 104.23 per barrel.

DBS Bank economists Radhika Rao and Philip Wee highlighted in a report that the rupee has depreciated rapidly, falling over 6% against the dollar in 2026 and reaching successive record lows. They have adjusted their USD/INR forecasts to a range of 95-100 for the rest of 2026.

In equity markets, the benchmark Sensex fell by 135.03 points to close at 75,183.36, while the Nifty closed nearly flat at 23,654.70. Foreign Institutional Investors sold equities worth Rs 1,597.35 crore net on Wednesday.