Indian equity indices are set for a cautious start on Thursday as GIFT Nifty signals weakness. While US inflation data offers some relief, investors are weighing persistent geopolitical tensions and elevated crude oil prices against the ongoing tug-of-war between institutional investors.
Indian stock markets are expected to see a muted or negative opening on Thursday, August 13, 2026. Early indications from the GIFT Nifty suggest that domestic indices might struggle to maintain momentum at the start of the trading session, despite a mostly positive trend across key Asian markets.
Investors are currently balancing contrasting signals from both local and global sources. On the global front, the latest US inflation data, which showed a 0.1 percent rise in consumer prices for July, met market expectations. This development has provided some comfort, as it suggests the Federal Reserve may not feel pressured to hike interest rates in the near term. This sentiment has helped boost technology shares in several Asian markets.
However, these positive cues are being overshadowed by concerns closer to home. Crude oil prices, which have a significant impact on India’s import bill and inflation, remain elevated near $90 per barrel. Ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East continue to fuel fears of potential supply disruptions, creating a headwind for the domestic market.
Another point of interest for market observers is the divergent activity of institutional investors. During the previous session on August 12, foreign institutional investors (FIIs) were net sellers, offloading equities worth ₹1,002.5 crore. In contrast, domestic institutional investors (DIIs) have been actively absorbing this supply, recording net buying of ₹5,841.66 crore. This consistent support from domestic funds is currently acting as a buffer, preventing deeper corrections in the market.
Technically, the Nifty 50 index is facing a stiff challenge. Analysts have noted that the 24,500 level acts as a significant resistance zone, where the market has encountered heavy selling pressure recently. For investors, the key monitorable for the coming sessions will be whether the index can decisively break past this 24,500 mark or if the current caution will lead to further consolidation. Market participants will also keep a close eye on the daily institutional flow trends to see if the domestic buying strength can sustain against foreign selling pressure.