India's exports to the United States declined to $26.2 billion between March and May 2026, down from $31.31 billion in the same period last year. While specific niche engineering and electronics sectors showed growth, major industries including diamonds, jewellery, and shrimp faced sharp export declines. The mixed performance reflects uneven impacts of evolving trade tariffs on Indian industries.
Detailed Coverage
Data from the March to May 2026 period indicates a complex trade environment for Indian exporters dealing with the United States. Total shipments fell by 16% compared to the same three-month window in 2025, reaching $26.2 billion. This decline highlights the pressures facing various sectors as they navigate changing international trade policies and tariff structures.
Sectoral Divergence in Trade
Not all sectors followed the downward trend. Some categories subject to tariffs actually saw an increase in export value, rising to $15.5 billion from $10.83 billion in the year-ago period. Products exempt from specific reciprocal tariffs performed particularly well, reaching $12.35 billion, up from $8.63 billion. Even goods facing an additional 10% duty showed resilience, with exports in that segment growing to $3.15 billion compared to $2.19 billion last year. These figures suggest that while broad trade faces headwinds, specific product categories are finding opportunities to expand their footprint in the US market.
Impact on Key Industries
Despite these bright spots, several major contributors to India’s export basket experienced significant contraction. The diamond sector was hit hardest, with exports to the US dropping sharply to $92.19 million from $1.26 billion. Jewellery exports saw a 70% decline, and the shrimp trade fell by 33%. These three areas traditionally represent high-value segments for Indian exports, and their reduced performance significantly dragged down the total trade figures.
Conversely, niche segments demonstrated strong growth, though often from much smaller starting points. For example, optical fibre exports surged to $8.8 million from under $100,000, and seamless steel casing pipes used in the energy sector rose to $2.69 million from a very small base. Products such as coffee makers and footwear components also recorded growth, suggesting that businesses with specialized manufacturing capabilities are managing the current trade environment more effectively than traditional high-volume commodity exporters.
Investor Context and Risks
For investors, this trade data highlights a shift in risk. Sectors like gems and jewellery are currently experiencing clear pricing and demand pressure related to US trade dynamics. The 10% tariff environment acts as a competitive filter; while India may hold a relative advantage compared to countries facing even higher duties, the benefit is not distributed evenly. The performance of these exports is sensitive to global consumer demand and the specific classification of goods under tariff regulations. Moving forward, the key factor for investors to track will be the ability of these sectors to maintain or gain market share in the US despite cost pressures and whether the growth in niche engineering and electronics can offset the decline in traditional high-value export segments.