Global merchandise trade rose by 1.9% in the first quarter of 2026, beating expectations due to high demand for AI-related electronic parts. While this growth offset initial pressure from the West Asia conflict, trade experts warn that the full impact of shipping disruptions will likely appear in second-quarter data.
Global merchandise trade showed resilience in the first three months of 2026, recording a 1.9% expansion that defied concerns over the regional conflict in West Asia. Data from the World Trade Organization indicates that the surge in trade for artificial intelligence-related electronic components helped stabilize overall figures. Year-on-year merchandise trade volume grew by 3.2%, which was higher than the 1.9% growth rate many economists had originally forecast.
Impact of Shipping Disruptions
While the first quarter benefited from the technology-driven export boom, the World Trade Organization has highlighted that the full consequences of the conflict are still developing. Specifically, the disruption of shipping routes near the Strait of Hormuz is expected to show a more significant negative impact in the second quarter of 2026. Data starting from April 2026 is projected to reflect steeper contractions in trade flows, particularly as shipping routes remain under pressure.
Regional Performance and Trends
Asia stood out as the leading region for trade growth during the first quarter. Exports from Asian countries rose by 12.9% year-on-year, while imports climbed by 14.6%. Much of this activity was concentrated within the region as countries like Singapore, South Korea, Thailand, and China increased their trade of AI-related goods. In contrast, North American trade showed mixed results. While exports from the region grew by 7% compared to the previous year, imports fell by 10.7%. This decline in North American imports is partly attributed to a base effect from early 2025, when companies rushed to import goods ahead of tariff changes.
Decline in Middle East Trade
The West Asia region experienced a sharp downturn during the period. Merchandise exports from the Middle East dropped by 9.7%, and imports fell by 11.9% year-on-year. The impact on energy and agricultural supplies was particularly notable. Crude oil imports from the region saw an estimated drop of 45% in March, while liquefied natural gas (LNG) and fertilizer imports fell by 52% and 26% respectively. These figures underscore the vulnerability of global energy supply chains to the ongoing regional situation.
For investors, the key monitorable remains the tension between the AI-led hardware boom and potential supply chain bottlenecks in the coming months. The ability of manufacturers to maintain electronic component shipments will depend on whether logistics channels remain stable despite the broader geopolitical pressure. Future trade updates will clarify if the global economy can continue to offset energy-related disruptions through technology-led manufacturing demand.