Investment firm Equirus has released a 20-point reform roadmap aiming to accelerate India's path to a $20 trillion economy by 2036, shaving a decade off current projections. The plan emphasizes services-led growth, deeper bond markets, and state-entity restructuring, though successful implementation remains the critical hurdle for long-term investors.
Investment bank Equirus has proposed a comprehensive 20-point reform agenda that it believes could propel India's economy to the $20 trillion mark by 2036. This timeline would mark an acceleration of a full decade compared to current standard projections, which typically estimate reaching this scale by 2047. The investment bank argues that the success of this target depends on the simultaneous implementation of all 20 reforms, rather than a piece-meal approach.
The core of the proposal centers on a shift in focus toward the services sector, including financial markets, Global Capability Centres, tourism, and education. While manufacturing remains a staple of economic policy, the roadmap positions services as the primary engine for this accelerated growth path. The plan also notes that this trajectory does not necessarily require the Indian rupee to appreciate significantly against the US dollar, suggesting that domestic productivity gains can carry the weight of the growth.
One of the most notable suggestions in the report involves the Indian corporate bond market. The proposal highlights that this market significantly lags behind the equity market in terms of depth and participation. To bridge this gap, it suggests removing preferential tax treatments that currently favor certain debt products and recommends creating policy parity between corporate bonds and listed equities. The aim is to move away from a system where bonds are primarily compared to bank fixed deposits, potentially unlocking capital for long-term corporate investment.
Beyond market reforms, the proposal touches on the structure of government assets. It suggests listing Indian Railways on the stock exchanges while the government retains ownership, drawing a parallel to the successful corporatization and privatization of the telecom sector in previous decades. Additionally, it advocates for consolidating various government-owned entities into a holding company structure, similar to the models used by Singapore’s Temasek Holdings or the Abu Dhabi Investment Authority. The rationale is that such a structure could professionalize the management of state assets while freeing up public funds for investment in social infrastructure.
While the roadmap offers an optimistic view of India's potential, investors and policymakers face several structural risks. Economic historians and analysts often point to the middle-income trap as a significant hurdle, where developing economies face difficulty transitioning to high-income status due to stagnant productivity or insufficient job creation. The Equirus report implicitly acknowledges these risks by stressing the need for concurrent reform, which remains a challenging political and administrative task in a large democracy.
External factors such as global economic shocks, geopolitical volatility, and the need for sustained domestic demand also play a massive role in whether these targets remain achievable. Current official government projections continue to aim for a $30 trillion economy by 2047, a vision supported by ongoing structural changes and various trade agreements. Moving forward, market participants will likely monitor the pace of policy reforms, labour market adjustments, and total factor productivity data to assess whether the country is truly trending toward these accelerated long-term growth targets.