Brokerage firm Equirus has proposed a 20-step reform agenda aiming to accelerate India's economy to $20 trillion by 2036. The roadmap emphasizes shifting the growth engine toward the services sector, specifically increasing its share of GDP to 65%. Key recommendations include bringing fuel under GST, listing Indian Railways, and creating an Indian sovereign fund to unlock liquidity.
Domestic brokerage firm Equirus has released a research report outlining a 20-point reform agenda intended to fast-track India’s journey toward a $20 trillion economy by 2036. The brokerage notes that reaching this milestone earlier than currently projected requires a specific combination of annual growth and currency stability. Specifically, the report estimates that India would need to sustain annual rupee growth of 14.2% and annual currency appreciation of 3% to 3.6%.
A central part of this vision involves a structural shift in the economy. The brokerage argues that India should focus heavily on the services sector, aiming to increase its contribution to the GDP from the current level of 54% to over 65%. This expansion is expected to drive the services sector's value from $2 trillion to more than $11 trillion over the next decade.
The proposed reforms touch upon several critical areas. One of the primary suggestions is to bring fuel under the Goods and Services Tax (GST) framework. Other significant proposals include listing the Indian Railways, establishing an Indian sovereign fund, and deepening corporate bond markets to improve capital access. The report also suggests creating a policy to triple the number of Global Capability Centres (GCCs) in India, moving from the current count of 1,800 to 5,000, which the firm believes could create 20 to 25 million jobs.
From a liquidity standpoint, the brokerage highlighted ways to unlock working capital for businesses. The report suggests that abolishing the advance tax system could free up approximately Rs 10 trillion. Additionally, it proposes that moving to a flat 5% Tax Deducted at Source (TDS) could release another Rs 13.4 trillion in working capital. These measures, according to the report, would help generate an estimated Rs 7.9 trillion in direct gains, helping to offset the projected costs of the reform package.
While the plan offers a path toward rapid growth, it also acknowledges potential obstacles. The brokerage highlights that manufacturing growth may face pressure from global protectionism, which could limit its ability to drive the economy as significantly as the services sector. Furthermore, the realization of this $20 trillion target is highly dependent on effective policy execution across these 20 areas. Investors may monitor how policymakers approach these structural suggestions, particularly reforms regarding tax structures and the privatization or listing of state-owned entities, as these remain critical variables for long-term economic growth.