Economist Surjit Bhalla’s new analysis reveals that China accounts for the vast majority of economic growth within the BRICS bloc. Excluding China, other members have seen limited or no progress in global income share since 2011. For investors, this suggests that individual domestic growth factors and trade policies remain far more important than the grouping’s collective diplomatic activity.
A new analysis of the BRICS economic bloc from 2011 to 2025 highlights a significant concentration of growth within China, raising questions about the tangible economic benefits for other member nations. Economist Surjit Bhalla, in his recent findings, reports that while the bloc’s collective share of global income has increased, this rise is overwhelmingly tied to China’s individual performance.
The data shows that China was responsible for 72% of the increase in the bloc's global income share over the last 14 years. This trend is even sharper in trade, where China accounted for 94% of the growth in total goods exports among BRICS members during the same period. When China’s contribution is removed from the calculations, the remaining members’ collective share of global income has essentially remained flat, moving only slightly from 11.9% to 11.5%.
Diverging Performance Among Members
The report identifies a stark difference in individual economic health. While some economies like Ethiopia and China have seen their per-capita dollar incomes roughly triple over the period, others have struggled. Countries such as Brazil, South Africa, and Iran recorded lower per-capita dollar incomes in 2025 compared to 2011, with South Africa facing a notable 20% decline. This indicates that membership in the group has not served as a unified engine for prosperity for all participating countries.
India’s Position and Investor Context
India is identified as a positive outlier in the group, ranking 26th globally in income growth. Its share of world income rose to 3.5% in 2025, up from 2.5% in 2011. However, the analysis clarifies that India’s economic progress is rooted in its own domestic reforms and global trade integration rather than the influence of the BRICS grouping itself. There is no common market, shared tariff preference, or binding economic commitment that forces the economies to rise together.
For investors monitoring the global landscape, the takeaway is to look past the diplomatic narrative of the bloc. The analysis suggests that the economic future of member countries depends on their specific ability to attract investment, improve trade policies, and manage internal growth. Without measurable gains in intra-bloc trade or more effective lending mechanisms, the grouping is primarily a diplomatic forum rather than a cohesive economic alliance. Moving forward, investors may track individual country growth data and trade policy changes rather than grouping-level initiatives to gauge economic health.