UBS Upgrades Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX) Stock, Boosts Price Target to ₹12,000

Investment bank UBS has reaffirmed its positive outlook on Multi Commodity Exchange of India (MCX) by maintaining a 'Buy' rating and increasing its price target to ₹12,000, up from ₹10,000. This new target implies a substantial potential upside of nearly 26% from its recent closing price.

UBS highlighted that MCX's earnings for October alone, when annualized, equate to approximately ₹320 per share, far surpassing the ₹158 (FY26) and ₹191 (FY27) estimated by market consensus. The brokerage anticipates further upward revisions to earnings, even with a potential dip in trading volumes from October's peak. Key drivers for this strong performance include elevated bullion prices, increased market volatility, and growing interest in energy commodities.

Additionally, the introduction of new products, such as smaller gold contracts which accounted for about 40% of gold trading value in October, and the potential launch of weekly and fortnightly options, are expected to provide further earnings boosts, contingent on regulatory clarity.

UBS has consequently raised its Earnings Per Share (EPS) estimates by 27% for FY26 and 23% for FY27.

Separately, MCX recently experienced an hours-long trading outage due to a technical issue, requiring a shift to its Disaster Recovery (DR) site before operations resumed.

Currently, out of 11 analysts tracking MCX, five recommend a 'Buy', four suggest 'Hold', and two rate it 'Sell'. The stock saw a 3.12% increase on Monday, reaching ₹9,531.50, and has gained almost 52% year-to-date in 2025.

Impact: This news is likely to have a positive impact on MCX's stock price, boosting investor confidence due to the strong endorsement from UBS and its significantly raised price target. The detailed analysis of earnings potential and new product impact provides a clear rationale for potential appreciation. Rating: 8/10

Difficult Terms: Annualised Earnings: This refers to projecting the earnings of a company over a full year based on its performance in a shorter period, like a quarter or a month. Market Consensus: This is the average opinion or forecast of a group of financial analysts regarding a particular stock or market. Bullion: This is a form of gold or silver in bars or ingots. Volatility: In finance, volatility refers to the degree of variation of a trading price series over time, usually measured by the standard deviation of logarithmic returns. Commodities: These are basic goods used in commerce that are interchangeable with other goods of the same type, such as oil, gold, or agricultural products. Disaster Recovery (DR) site: This is a backup location that a business can move to if its primary site is destroyed or rendered unusable. Earnings Per Share (EPS): This is a company's net profit divided by the number of outstanding shares of its common stock, used to show the value each share of the company's stock represents.