The US administration has waived the proposed 100% punitive duty on Indian goods, removing a major hurdle for gem and jewellery exporters. This decision provides stability ahead of the peak festive shipping season. Meanwhile, Indian households are shifting domestic gold demand toward investment products like bars and ETFs, a trend investors may want to monitor alongside export growth.
Indian gem and jewellery exporters have received a significant reprieve following the US government’s decision to waive the proposed 100% punitive import duty on Indian goods. This decision cancels the regulatory uncertainty that had clouded the trade outlook since September, allowing businesses to resume normal operations for the upcoming US holiday season.
The United States remains the largest market for Indian jewellery exports. Industry participants noted that the looming tariff threat had created anxiety, causing some firms to look at diversifying their markets. With the threat removed, exporters can now focus on the peak Christmas shipping cycle. This clarity is expected to support the industry, which reported a 13% export growth in the first half of the current fiscal year.
While the export outlook has improved, the domestic market is showing a change in consumer behavior. Gold prices have eased by 5% in the last month, currently trading around ₹145,944 per 10 grams as of Monday. This price correction has kept retail demand steady, but the nature of this demand is evolving.
Financial analysts have pointed to a shift in how Indian families view gold. Instead of traditional jewellery purchases, there is a marked preference for gold bars, coins, and exchange-traded funds. This indicates that consumers are increasingly prioritizing liquid wealth preservation over pure consumption. Investors should observe how this shift in domestic purchasing habits impacts the profit margins of traditional jewellery retailers. If consumers continue to favor investment-grade gold over value-added jewellery, it could compress margins for retailers who depend on high-margin ornaments.
While the US tariff threat has abated, exporters remain sensitive to global economic conditions and gold price volatility. The key monitorables for the sector will be quarterly earnings from major jewellery firms, export shipment volume data, and the sustainability of domestic festive demand as it shifts away from traditional items.