US Ends Waivers, India Faces New Oil Reality

The US decision to end short-term waivers on Russian and Iranian oil marks a shift from supporting market liquidity to stricter financial enforcement. For India, a major energy importer, this is a critical moment, requiring it to balance energy needs with rising geopolitical and financial risks.

Waivers Expire, Prices React

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent confirmed that temporary sanctions waivers allowing the sale of Russian oil already en route expired on April 11, 2026. A similar waiver for Iranian oil will lapse on April 19, 2026. This ends a brief period where these nations could sell loaded barrels to stabilize prices during West Asian conflicts. The expiration comes as oil prices have seen a recent dip, with WTI crude falling to about $89.81 per barrel on April 17, 2026, and Brent futures trading around $95.58 on April 15, 2026. Despite this, global crude prices are still much higher than last year, reflecting higher prices due to geopolitical risks. Analysts expect continued price swings as markets adjust to renewed sanctions enforcement.

India's Strategy and Peers

India significantly increased its Russian oil imports under the expired waiver, nearly doubling them in March 2026 to around 2 million barrels per day (bpd), making up roughly 44.4% of its total imports for the month. This followed a dip to just over 1 million bpd in February 2026. The waiver allowed Indian refiners to take deliveries from sanctioned tankers and deal directly with Russian entities, helping Indian refiners deal with Washington. However, adjustments are expected, though Russian crude is likely to remain a top import choice due to its price and logistics advantages via routes avoiding the Strait of Hormuz. China, meanwhile, has steadily increased its Russian oil imports, averaging 2.09 million bpd in February 2026 and becoming the largest buyer of Russian fossil fuels. Major energy companies like ExxonMobil (market cap around $630 billion, P/E ratio of 21.35-22.7) and Shell (valued at roughly $250-257 billion, P/E ratio of 14.8-15.37) are key players, but their valuations now face market reactions to geopolitical shifts and policy changes.

Key Risks for India and Traders

The end of these waivers creates a more challenging environment for energy traders and refiners, especially in India. The main risk is the increased threat of secondary sanctions. While Russian oil is not fully sanctioned, the US Treasury has warned it will not tolerate financial institutions that help with non-compliant trades, potentially targeting banks in key regions. This focus on financial enforcement could limit banks' access to US dollar systems and make it harder for companies involved in sanctioned oil trade. Refiners may face higher costs for crude, tighter banking and insurance options, and reduced profit margins. Furthermore, the absence of waivers may lead to more volatile and less predictable supply chains, particularly with ongoing tensions near the Strait of Hormuz.

Outlook

Analysts expect Indian refiners to adjust operations, focusing on managing direct sanctioned entity dealings and near-term loaded barrels rather than abandoning Russian crude. The market is now heavily influenced by the US's commitment to financial enforcement and its ability to deter intermediaries. Some forecasts predict WTI crude trading between $89 and $97 per barrel by the end of the second quarter of 2026, with prices potentially rising to $111-$137 by year-end. However, the trajectory depends on geopolitical events and sanctions effectiveness. Removing these market support measures means more financial pressure, possibly pushing oil trade into less transparent channels and leading to greater long-term price swings.