Whalesbook
Precious Metals ETFs Show Divergent Trends
Exchange-traded funds (ETFs) tracking gold and silver showed mixed performance on Monday, March 9, 2026. They posted modest gains, contrasting with declines in their respective futures markets. This divergence pointed to complex investor sentiment, with geopolitical fears, particularly between the US and Iran, supporting ETF values even as futures faced pressure. Several silver ETFs, including DSP Silver ETF, UTI Silver ETF, and Groww Silver ETF, rose 0.16% to 0.32%. Gold ETFs, like Union Gold ETF, gained up to 1.3%. This occurred as gold futures on MCX fell 0.87% and silver futures dropped 1.3%. The trend suggests investors might prefer the perceived stability of ETFs over volatile futures, or that institutional buying is cushioning ETF prices despite weaker spot markets.
Oil Prices Surge Amid Geopolitical Tension; Market Impact
Geopolitical events also hit energy markets hard, with oil prices surging. Brent crude futures jumped nearly 20% to trade above $107 a barrel on March 9, 2026. This rise was driven by production cuts from Middle East producers amidst threats to shipping via the Strait of Hormuz, a key global energy route. History shows Middle Eastern conflicts often cause significant oil price spikes, seen in past decades including the 1970s energy crises, 1990, and 2011. Higher oil prices fuel inflation concerns, potentially complicating central bank policy and lowering hopes for early interest rate cuts. This can historically hurt gold prices if the dollar strengthens. US stock index futures declined on March 8, suggesting a cautious opening for broader equity markets.
Analyst Cautions on Short-Term ETF Outlook
Although geopolitical tensions typically support precious metals as safe havens, analysts urge caution. Kranthi Bathini, director of equity strategy at WealthMills Securities, described gold and silver as being in a 'consolidation phase' after a strong year-to-date rally. Bathini advised against buying short-term ETFs, suggesting medium-term investors might find better entry points. This view cools immediate positive sentiment. Still, ongoing geopolitical uncertainty is expected to support demand for gold and silver in the medium term. Historically, gold has shown resilience during turmoil; previous tensions in early 2026 saw prices exceed $5,500 per ounce. Marex analysts predict gold could rise $200 per ounce after hostilities, but stressed that lasting price gains depend on real supply disruptions, not just speculation.
Underlying Risks and Market Volatility
Despite the headline ETF gains, the market faces significant risks. Precious metal ETFs saw sharp drops on March 4, 2026, with silver ETFs falling up to 9% and gold ETFs around 3-4%, mirroring a global bullion sell-off. This volatility shows that while geopolitics boost safe-haven demand, market moves are also shaped by currency shifts, rate expectations, and trading speculation. The strong US dollar and dwindling hopes for Federal Reserve rate cuts have pressured gold, even with ongoing conflict. Gold's recent correlation with crude oil has also weakened, suggesting speculation is limiting its role as a safe asset. Key support for gold was tested near $5,000/oz. The wider commodity market presents a mixed picture: gold prices are expected to climb while oil faces supply pressure, unless geopolitical events drastically change supply and demand. Investors should remember commodity markets are naturally volatile, affected by supply, demand, weather, and economic cycles, not just geopolitics.