Monarch PMS projects gold prices between $4,300 and $4,700 per ounce by late 2026, driven by steady central bank buying. However, with spot gold currently trading near $4,600 to $4,700, this forecast aligns closely with current market levels. Investors should track US Federal Reserve policy and potential profit-taking, as these remain critical factors for future price movement.
Monarch Portfolio Management Services (PMS) has released a new outlook for the precious metals market, forecasting that gold prices could trade between $4,300 and $4,700 per ounce by the end of 2026. The firm’s base-case scenario, which carries a 55 percent probability according to their report, is supported by the expectation that global central banks will continue buying approximately 250 tonnes of gold per quarter.
For investors, it is important to note that global spot gold prices are already trading near the $4,600 to $4,700 per ounce range as of late August 2026. This means the current market price is already in line with the upper end of the firm's year-end 2026 target. When a forecasted price is close to the current market price, it often suggests that much of the anticipated growth may already be reflected in the current value.
Drivers and Risks for Gold
The firm’s analysis assumes the US Federal Reserve will maintain current interest rates through September 2026, which generally supports non-yielding assets like gold. However, the outlook remains sensitive to future monetary policy. A key risk for investors is the potential for Federal Reserve interest rate hikes. Higher interest rates typically make gold less attractive compared to interest-bearing assets like bonds. In a bear-case scenario, where rates are increased, the firm notes that prices could retreat to between $3,400 and $3,900 per ounce.
Conversely, a bull-case scenario—assigned a 25 percent probability—suggests prices could climb higher if labour market weakness forces the central bank into premature rate cuts. Beyond interest rates, market participants are also closely watching US Treasury bond buyback programs and ongoing geopolitical tensions, which have acted as significant drivers for safe-haven demand in recent months.
Silver as an Alternative
In addition to gold, the report highlights silver as an alternative, viewing it as a relative value play. The firm identifies a structural supply deficit in the silver market, noting that the industry has faced supply shortages for six consecutive years. With silver prices recently trading near $69 per ounce, the firm points to the gold-silver ratio to explain its stance.
This ratio is a tool used by investors to determine if silver is cheap relative to gold. The firm’s model uses a benchmark of 60 for this ratio. Given that the ratio has recently hovered around 69, the firm views silver as a potentially attractive entry point compared to gold, assuming historical price averages hold true.
As the market moves toward late 2026, the most important updates for investors will be the US Federal Reserve’s interest rate decisions and any shifts in central bank accumulation strategies. Investors should also monitor the potential for profit-taking, as gold’s recent price strength may lead some institutional players to sell and lock in gains, which could cause temporary fluctuations in the price.