Gold prices on the Multi Commodity Exchange have declined for four straight days, trading near Rs 1.45-1.46 lakh per 10 grams. Rising crude oil costs and uncertainty ahead of the US Federal Reserve meeting are pressuring the metal, creating a complex backdrop for the upcoming festive and wedding season in India.
Gold prices have seen a steady decline on the Multi Commodity Exchange, marking the fourth consecutive session of lower trading. The precious metal is currently testing support levels between Rs 1,45,300 and Rs 1,46,000 per 10 grams. This price movement arrives just as the Indian festive and wedding season kicks off, typically a period of high physical demand.
The primary driver of the current weakness is the recent increase in global crude oil prices, which has raised concerns about renewed inflationary pressure. Gold is often viewed as an inflation hedge, but when oil prices surge, the broader fear of sticky inflation and persistent interest rates often forces investors to re-evaluate their holdings. Furthermore, market uncertainty regarding the upcoming US Federal Reserve policy meeting is discouraging heavy buying, as investors wait for clearer signals on future interest rate directions.
Technically, the gold price is navigating a challenging period. Analysts are keeping a close watch on the Rs 1,45,300 support floor. If the price fails to maintain this range, there is a risk of further slippage toward the Rs 1,43,000 to Rs 1,43,700 zone. On the upside, immediate resistance is visible between Rs 1,48,000 and Rs 1,48,600, a level that previously served as support before the recent breakdown. Current momentum indicators suggest that selling pressure persists, making it difficult for the metal to find a firm bottom in the immediate term.
For Indian consumers and investors, this situation presents a dilemma. While current lower prices might seem attractive for retail buyers preparing for Dhanteras and Diwali, the broader macroeconomic environment remains volatile. The link between global crude oil prices and gold means that any further escalation in geopolitical tensions or energy costs could keep gold prices under pressure. Investors focusing on long-term portfolio allocation may look past this short-term volatility, but traders are likely to remain cautious until the US Federal Reserve clarifies its interest rate policy. The most important update to track in the coming days will be the outcome of the Fed meeting and the actual volume of physical buying during the initial days of the festive season, which will provide clues on whether consumers are willing to embrace current price levels.