Commodities
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Updated on 11 Nov 2025, 06:27 am
Reviewed By
Aditi Singh | Whalesbook News Team
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According to Gregory Shearer, Head of Base and Precious Metals Research at JPMorgan, global metal prices are poised for a robust year, primarily driven by persistent supply disruptions and steady demand. Copper prices, having already surpassed $10,000 per tonne, are projected by JPMorgan to climb to $12,000 per tonne by the first quarter of 2026. This forecast is underpinned by an increasing global supply deficit, exacerbated by issues like the Grasberg mine disruptions and significant US over-importation of refined copper, which has tightened availability in Asian markets. A refined copper deficit of approximately 300,000 tonnes is anticipated next year.
Aluminium is also expected to maintain strength, with JPMorgan estimating prices around $3,000 per tonne by early 2026. The aluminium market is described as balanced but tight, influenced by production outages in Iceland, potential capacity losses in Mozambique, and capped output from China. However, new supply from Indonesia in 2026-27 could potentially ease prices later.
For gold, JPMorgan is "very bullish," forecasting an average of $4,600–$4,700 per ounce in 2026, with a year-end target of nearly $5,000 per ounce. This optimistic outlook is supported by expected substantial purchases from central banks and inflows into Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs).
Impact This news can significantly impact Indian businesses that rely on these metals as raw materials. Rising prices for copper, aluminium, and gold will increase input costs for sectors like manufacturing, automotive, construction, and jewelry. This could lead to higher production costs for companies, potentially affecting their profit margins and resulting in increased prices for end consumers, contributing to inflationary pressures. For investors, it signals potential opportunities in commodity trading and companies that might benefit from higher metal prices.
Definitions: LME Copper: London Metal Exchange prices for copper, a global benchmark. Supply Deficit: Occurs when the demand for a commodity exceeds its supply. Refined Copper: Copper that has been purified through smelting and electrolysis. Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs): Investment funds traded on stock exchanges, providing diversified exposure to assets like commodities.