Whalesbook
Shifting Energy Priorities
The ongoing conflict in West Asia is forcing India to increase its energy imports from the United States, especially Natural Gas Liquids (NGLs). This strategic change follows attacks on oil and gas sites in the Middle East that are disrupting liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) production and shipping. India, which typically gets about 90% of its LPG from West Asia, is now facing greater risk to its supply chain.
Soaring US NGL Imports
US NGL exports to India have surged dramatically. Imports went from just 2,000 barrels per day (b/d) in 2016 to an all-time high of 139,000 b/d last year. The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) noted a 70,000 b/d, or 101%, jump in US NGL exports to India in the past year. This includes significant increases in butane, which rose to 36,000 b/d, and propane, with imports reaching 41,000 b/d in 2025.
West Asian Supply Chain Risks
India's usual suppliers in the Middle East, such as the UAE, Qatar, Kuwait, and Saudi Arabia, have faced disruptions from regional conflict. The Strait of Hormuz, a vital shipping route for energy, is also at higher risk. Analysts predict that even if routes reopen, around 220,000 b/d of LPG exports might stay offline long-term, a significant part of the region's normal supply. This highlights how vulnerable India is relying almost entirely on this area for its cooking fuel.
US Position Strengthens
Analysts like Anna Zhminko of Vortexa expect the US to be a stable supplier in Asian markets until at least mid-2026. US exporters are likely to adjust their cargo shipments, possibly adding more butane to meet demand. Although India might get some supplies from elsewhere, the main effort is on increasing NGL purchases from the US, a move supported by ongoing trade talks.