Gold & Silver Price SURGE on US Rate Cut Hopes? Expert Reveals Key Levels & Strategy!

Gold prices are currently experiencing consolidated moves but face upside resistance, with analysts recommending a 'buy on dips' strategy. Maneesh Sharma from Anand Rathi Shares and Stock Brokers noted that positive developments regarding the US government shutdown reopening have revived prospects for US Federal Reserve rate cuts in December, shifting focus to the deteriorating US fiscal outlook. Weak US private jobs data and a spike in job cuts indicated by US Challenger job data further support these rate cut expectations, with CME Fed funds tool showing over 90% probability for a December rate cut.

Worries about the economic fallout from the US government shutdown also underpinned demand for gold as a safe-haven commodity, pushing prices to three-week highs. Persistent inflation concerns, amplified by President Donald Trump's suggestion of $2000 rebate checks for tariffs collected, provided additional support. Furthermore, China's central bank has continued its gold buying streak for the 12th consecutive month, boosting market sentiment.

For silver, spot prices rose over 4% to above $50 per oz. Its inclusion in the US critical minerals list offers structural support. While supply shortages may have eased, uncertain economic conditions in the US are expected to keep safe haven flows intact for white metal.

**Gold Price Outlook:** In the near term, gold is expected to test resistance around $4190 – $4210 per oz (CMP $4135/Oz), with support seen at $4110 – $4075 per oz. On MCX futures, support is expected at Rs 1,23,800 – 1,22,900 per 10 gm, with resistance at Rs 1,26,500 – 1,27,900 per 10 gm.

**Silver Price Outlook:** Silver could trade with a positive bias, aiming for $52.20 – $52.50 per oz (CMP $51.10/Oz), with strong support at $50.20 – $49.50 /Oz. On MCX futures, support is seen at Rs 1,52,500–1,50,800 / Kg, with resistance at Rs 1,58,000 - 1,59,500/Kg.

Traders will closely monitor US October CPI inflation data and US Retail Sales for further direction.

**Impact** This news directly impacts commodity markets globally and can influence investment strategies for precious metals for Indian investors. The outlook on US interest rates and economic health also has broader implications. Rating: 7/10

**Key Terms Explained:** * **Safe-haven commodity:** An asset that investors turn to during times of market uncertainty or economic downturn, expecting it to retain or increase its value. * **US Government Shutdown:** A situation where US federal government agencies cease to operate due to a failure to pass legislation funding them. * **Rate Cuts:** A reduction in the interest rates set by a central bank, typically done to stimulate economic growth. * **Federal Reserve (Fed):** The central banking system of the United States. * **Fiscal Outlook:** The projected financial state of a government, including its revenues and expenditures. * **Labour Market:** The supply and demand for jobs, often assessed through employment and unemployment figures. * **CME Fed Funds Tool:** A market-based indicator that shows the probability of the Federal Reserve changing its target interest rate. * **Inflation:** A general increase in prices and fall in the purchasing value of money. * **Tariffs:** Taxes imposed on imported goods. * **Rebate Checks:** Payments sent to citizens by the government, often to stimulate the economy. * **MCX Futures:** Contracts traded on the Multi Commodity Exchange of India, allowing investors to buy or sell commodities like gold and silver at a predetermined price on a future date. * **Spot Price:** The current market price for immediate delivery of a commodity. * **Critical Minerals List:** A list compiled by a government identifying minerals deemed essential for economic and national security, often implying support or strategic importance. * **Supply Shortage:** A situation where the demand for a commodity exceeds its available supply. * **Dollar Index:** A measure of the value of the U.S. dollar relative to a basket of foreign currencies. * **Consumer Price Index (CPI):** A measure that examines the weighted average of prices of a basket of consumer goods and services, such as transportation, food, and medical care. It is calculated by taking price changes for each item in the predetermined basket of goods and averaging them. * **Retail Sales:** A measure of the total sales of retail goods by businesses, indicating consumer spending.