MCX Shares Dip as Morgan Stanley Maintains 'Underweight' Rating, Contrasting UBS Upgrade

Shares of Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX) opened nearly 5% lower on Friday after global brokerage Morgan Stanley maintained its 'Underweight' rating with a ₹5,860 target price, implying a 37% downside. Morgan Stanley noted MCX's Q2 profit after tax (PAT) and core EBITDA were in line with expectations, aided by cost reductions. However, they observed fluctuations in Average Daily Transaction Revenue (ADTR), which rose to ₹9.5 crore in October before settling at ₹8 crore, noting that sustained higher ADTR could boost EPS forecasts. MCX also addressed a recent technical issue.

Contrasting this, UBS raised its MCX price target to ₹12,000 from ₹10,000. UBS cited strong October performance driven by elevated bullion prices, higher volatility, and interest in energy commodities, suggesting potential for earnings upgrades.

Currently, analyst consensus is mixed: 5 'Buy', 4 'Hold', 2 'Sell'. MCX shares traded 2.79% lower at ₹8,992.50, though they have gained nearly 45% year-to-date in 2025.

Impact: This news significantly impacts MCX's stock and investor sentiment due to divergent brokerage views, potentially increasing volatility. Investors should weigh analyst opinions, market trends, and revenue drivers like ADTR and commodity prices. Rating: 7/10.

Difficult Terms: * **Brokerage Firm**: Financial company trading investments for clients. * **'Underweight' rating**: Stock expected to underperform the market. * **Target Price**: Analyst's projected future stock price. * **PAT (Profit After Tax)**: Net profit after taxes. * **EBITDA**: Measure of operating performance before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization. * **ADTR (Average Daily Transaction Revenue)**: Average daily revenue from trading. * **EPS (Earnings Per Share)**: Profit per outstanding share. * **Bullion**: Precious metals like gold and silver in bar form. * **Volatility**: Measure of how much a security's price fluctuates.