Indian Markets Expected to Open Flat Amid Mixed Global Cues and Volatility Concerns

Indian stock markets are poised for a flat opening on Thursday, navigating mixed global cues. Analysts foresee a volatile and directionless market in the near term. Gift Nifty trading slightly higher suggests a cautious start.

**Impact on Indian Equities**: The current market sentiment is influenced by global trends. While some global markets show signs of stabilization, an uptick in US bond yields, driven by strong economic data, could lead to renewed foreign investor outflows from emerging markets like India. This may put pressure on the Indian Rupee and contribute to near-term stock market volatility. (Impact rating: 7/10)

**Nifty50 Earnings Analysis**: A report by JM Financial highlights significant shifts in Nifty50 Earnings Per Share (EPS) estimates. While Nifty50 delivered 6.3% returns in the past year (Oct '24-Oct '25), EPS estimates for FY26E and FY27E have seen cuts of 8.5% and 7.5% respectively. In October 2025, EPS estimates for FY26E and FY27E decreased by 0.2% month-on-month. The number of Nifty companies with EPS cuts rose to 52% in October 2025 from 36% in September 2025, with Insurance, Consumer, Metals & Mining, IT Services, Pharmaceuticals, Utilities, and Cement sectors being key contributors. Stocks experiencing the largest EPS cuts include Adani Enterprises, JSW Steel, Coal India, and Kotak Mahindra Bank. Conversely, Hindalco Industries, Eicher Motors, Infosys, HDFC Bank, and Grasim Industries saw the largest EPS upgrades.

**Derivatives Market Sentiment**: The Derivatives (F&O) trading segment indicates a defensive market mood. Call writers are actively building positions at higher strike prices, suggesting resistance, while put writers are shifting to lower strikes, signaling risk aversion. A substantial open interest (OI) at the 26,000 call strike indicates strong resistance, with support found around the 25,200 strike. The Put-Call Ratio (PCR) has increased to 0.73, signalling cautiousness among traders. India VIX, a volatility index, edged down slightly to 12.65, suggesting relative stability despite market fluctuations. Key resistance is seen near 25,700, with support around 25,500. A sustained move above 25,700 is needed for a bullish trend, while failure to hold 25,500 could lead to further decline.

**Difficult Terms Explained**: * **Gift Nifty**: An index that represents the Nifty 50 index in an offshore market, often used as an early indicator of the Nifty 50's opening trend. * **US bond yields**: The interest paid by the U.S. government on the bonds it issues. Rising yields generally make fixed-income investments more attractive, potentially drawing money away from stocks. * **Foreign outflows**: The selling of assets by foreign investors in a particular country's market, leading to capital leaving that country. * **Emerging markets**: Countries with developing economies that are in the process of industrialization and economic growth, often considered higher risk but with higher potential returns than developed markets. * **EPS (Earnings Per Share)**: A company's profit divided by the number of its outstanding shares. It indicates profitability on a per-share basis. * **FY26E / FY27E**: Fiscal Year 2026 Estimates / Fiscal Year 2027 Estimates. These refer to projected financial performance for those fiscal years. * **MoM (Month-over-Month)**: A comparison of a metric from one month to the previous month. * **EPS cut / EPS upgrades**: A revision downwards (cut) or upwards (upgrade) of the estimated future earnings per share of a company by analysts. * **F&O trading (Futures and Options)**: A type of derivatives trading where contracts whose value is derived from an underlying asset (like stocks) are bought and sold. * **Derivatives**: Financial contracts whose value is based on an underlying asset or group of assets. * **Call writers**: Traders who sell call options, betting that the price of the underlying asset will not rise significantly above the strike price. * **Put writers**: Traders who sell put options, betting that the price of the underlying asset will not fall significantly below the strike price. * **Open interest (OI)**: The total number of outstanding derivative contracts that have not been settled. High OI at a particular strike price can indicate strong support or resistance. * **Call strike / Put strike**: The specific price at which a call or put option contract can be exercised. * **Put-Call Ratio (PCR)**: A market sentiment indicator calculated by dividing the number of put options traded by the number of call options traded. A low PCR (below 1) generally indicates bearish sentiment, while a high PCR (above 1) indicates bullish sentiment. A ratio around 0.73 indicates caution. * **India VIX**: A volatility index that represents the market's expectation of volatility over the next 30 days, derived from Nifty 50 options prices. A lower VIX indicates lower expected volatility. * **Consolidation phase**: A period in financial markets where an asset's price trades within a defined range, without a clear upward or downward trend. * **Bullish momentum**: The tendency for prices to continue rising.