Q3 revenue at Tata Technologies saw a boost from its non-auto services segment, but profit margins faced headwinds from a recent wage hike and a significant cybersecurity incident at Jaguar Land Rover (JLR).
The company has set an ambitious target for 10% sequential growth in its services segment for the fourth quarter. This optimism is fueled by the anticipated normalization of revenues at JLR, the integration of ES-TEC numbers, and continued expansion in non-auto services. Analysts view achieving this target as achievable.
Medium-Term Auto Service Concerns
Despite short-term growth prospects, a cloud hangs over the medium term for auto services revenue. Analysts forecast potential pressure as anchor clients, JLR and Tata Motors, plan to strategically scale down product investments. This reliance on major automotive players remains a key concern.
Diversification Efforts
Tata Technologies has made strides in diversifying its revenue streams. The contribution of non-auto services, which cater to the ER&D needs of aerospace and heavy industrial machinery clients, has grown from 9% to 15% of total revenues. This segment has exhibited robust growth, averaging over 5% quarter-on-quarter. Coupled with the acquisition of ES-TEC, these efforts are aimed at paring dependency on anchor clients.
Persistent Anchor Client Reliance
However, the brokerage notes that anchor clients, specifically Tata Motors (TML) and JLR, still constitute around 50% of the company's revenue base. This substantial contribution means the segment may continue to experience weakness, dampening overall performance.
Valuation and Outlook
Consequently, the 'Sell' rating is maintained, accompanied by a lowered target price of ₹490, down from ₹515. This valuation is based on an unchanged 22x FY28E Price-to-Earnings (P/E) multiple. Key risks that could challenge this outlook include a faster-than-expected recovery in anchor client spending or a higher-than-anticipated contribution from a potential BMW joint venture.