Whalesbook
Bernstein analysts predict prediction markets could hit approximately $1 trillion by 2030, marking a significant evolution from niche wagering to broad 'information markets' that cover sports, crypto, politics, and the economy. Last year, the market saw $51 billion in volume, with projections reaching $240 billion by 2026, indicating a robust compound annual growth rate of roughly 80% through the decade. Platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi have already recorded $60 billion year-to-date.
Growth Drivers
This rapid growth is being fueled by increasing regulatory clarity at the federal level, which expands the addressable market beyond fragmented state-level gaming rules. Blockchain-based tokenization and integration with crypto markets are also unlocking global liquidity, enabling the quick creation of contracts for a wide variety of events and attracting institutional participation.
Market Evolution and Distribution Advantage
Currently, sports dominate volumes at about 62%, but this share is expected to decrease as crypto-linked contracts and macroeconomic events gain traction. Institutional interest is rising, particularly for hedging event-driven risks. Bernstein projects industry revenues could expand from roughly $400 million in 2025 to $10.8 billion by 2030. Distribution is emerging as a key competitive advantage, with Robinhood (HOOD) and Coinbase (COIN) identified as early leaders leveraging their extensive user bases. Robinhood has already established a significant annualized revenue run rate from prediction markets, while Coinbase offers nationwide access to over 1,000 contracts via Kalshi. The firm maintains an outperform rating on both companies, signaling confidence in their future performance.