Whalesbook
Nifty 50: Consolidation and Key Levels
However, market sentiment remains cautious. The Nifty 50 has pulled back from recent highs, trading below its 20-day and 50-day EMAs, indicating weaker short-term momentum. The daily RSI failed to cross 60 and has dipped below its 9-day average. The MACD histogram has declined for five consecutive sessions, suggesting a loss of momentum.
Technically, the 23,700–23,650 zone is seen as crucial support, aligning with the 38.2 percent Fibonacci retracement. A drop below 23,650 could lead to a decline towards 23,300. Key resistance is found in the 24,200–24,250 area. A strong move above this range is needed to spark bullish momentum.
Institutional Investors Sell Heavily
Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) continued to sell, offloading ₹8,828 crore in the cash market on April 24. This extended recent outflows to ₹17,140 crore, showing a bearish trend in institutional positions. This surge in selling on April 24 far exceeds the combined outflows of the previous four sessions, highlighting a rapid return to a risk-off sentiment.
Derivatives data also points to caution, as the index futures long-short ratio fell to 19.28 percent, showing a steady increase in short positions over the past three days.
Bank Nifty Holds Stronger
Despite recent market corrections, the Bank Nifty showed relative strength, falling less than broader indices. The index found support near its previous swing low and recovered slightly, indicating buying interest at lower prices. Technically, it stays above its 20-day EMA, a positive near-term signal.
The 20-day EMA zone of 55,700–55,600 should act as immediate support. Key resistance is at the 200-day EMA, between 56,600–56,700. A clear break above 56,700 could start a new uptrend, possibly aiming for 57,500 and then 58,200.
Midcap Pick: PNB Housing Finance
PNB Housing Finance broke above its prior swing high of ₹1,015, signaling a continued bullish trend. The stock has gained nearly 23% from its April 8 low of ₹835. Momentum indicators are positive: RSI is trending higher, and ADX shows growing trend strength. The MACD remains above its signal line and the zero line with an upward slope.
Buy in the ₹1,040-1,030 range, with a stop-loss at ₹990. The stock is set to test ₹1,120 in the short term.
Midcap Pick: Glenmark Pharma
Glenmark Pharma has broken its consolidation range of ₹2,275–2,205 and passed its previous swing high of ₹2,298. The widening gap between DI lines (DI+ above DI-) shows clear bullish strength. The rising Glenmark/Pharma ratio chart indicates consistent outperformance within its sector.
Buy in the ₹2,310-2,290 range, with a stop-loss at ₹2,210. The stock could reach ₹2,470 soon.
Sector Performance and Other Stocks
While the IT index fell significantly, banking stocks held up better. Cochin Shipyard and Aditya Birla Sun Life AMC also show bullish momentum. Adani Energy Solutions looks overbought and may see profit-taking. Emami Realty broke a downtrend line on strong volume.
Crude Oil Price Outlook
Brent crude shows a cautiously positive trend, trading above key moving averages. Immediate support is around $96–96.50, with resistance at $109–109.50. A move above 60 on the RSI could lead to further gains.