Brokerage house Jefferies expects Groww’s Margin Trading Facility (MTF) book to nearly triple to ₹100 billion by FY29. While this growth signals a shift toward credit-backed equity, the firm has slightly lowered its earnings forecast due to regulatory changes impacting options trading.
Brokerage firm Jefferies has released a report highlighting a significant growth opportunity for Groww, the retail brokerage brand of Billionbrains Garage Ventures. The report projects that Groww’s Margin Trading Facility (MTF) book could expand to ₹100 billion by fiscal year 2029. This growth is set against the backdrop of an expanding industry, with the total margin trading market in India expected to reach ₹2.5 trillion by the end of fiscal year 2030, growing at a steady 24 percent annually.
Margin trading allows investors to purchase more stocks than they can afford with their current cash balance by using the stocks as collateral. For brokers, this is becoming an increasingly important source of revenue. Currently, bank-led brokers such as ICICI Securities, Kotak Securities, and HDFC Securities control about 40 percent of this market. However, discount brokers like Groww, Zerodha, and Angel One have been steadily increasing their market share, which rose to 15 percent by mid-2026.
Despite the positive outlook, the report notes that Groww has room to improve its penetration. Currently, only 1.1 percent of its active cash-broking clients use the margin trading facility. In comparison, competing platforms see adoption rates between 2.5 and 3 percent. This gap suggests that if Groww successfully scales its product offerings, it could see significant growth in its margin book. Jefferies projects that revenue from margin trading will grow to 14 percent of Groww’s total revenue by fiscal year 2029, up from 5 percent in fiscal year 2026.
While the expansion prospects remain strong, the report also addresses the friction caused by regulatory shifts. Recent changes in the Centralized Authentication System, which have affected options order growth across the industry, have impacted revenue projections. As a result, Jefferies has adjusted its earnings per share estimates for the company downward by 2 to 3 percent for the period covering fiscal year 2027 to 2029. The brokerage has set a target price of ₹240 for the company, reflecting both the growth potential and the current regulatory challenges.
For investors and market observers, the key monitorables will be how effectively Groww increases its MTF adoption among existing users and how the company manages the impact of regulatory changes on its high-margin segments like derivatives. Continued tracking of the company's ability to maintain revenue growth while navigating a stricter regulatory environment will be essential for understanding its financial health in the coming years.