RBI Currency Caps Hit Banks, Commodities Surge Amid Geopolitics

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AuthorRiya Kapoor|Published at:
RBI Currency Caps Hit Banks, Commodities Surge Amid Geopolitics
Overview

Indian markets saw heavy volatility as banking stocks fell sharply after the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) set daily caps of $100 million on banks' open currency positions. This added to existing market caution. Meanwhile, Coal India climbed on a large battery storage contract, and select PSUs showed strength. Aluminium stocks jumped on Middle East supply disruptions.

Banking Sector Faces RBI Currency Curbs

The Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) directive limiting daily open currency positions for banks to $100 million has triggered a sell-off in Indian banking stocks. This regulatory move affects banks' treasury operations and their flexibility in managing currency risks. Major Indian indices, including the Nifty and Sensex, traded lower, with the Nifty Bank index experiencing a significant drop.

Despite the broader banking sector's asset quality remaining at historic lows with gross NPAs at 2.15% as of September 2025, the RBI's intervention highlights sensitivities. Specific institutions faced scrutiny; for example, IndusInd Bank was noted for its negative TTM EPS and a PE ratio of -35.01 amidst reviews for its derivatives portfolio. Other large banks like HDFC Bank traded with a P/E of approximately 15.0x, ICICI Bank around 15.7x, and State Bank of India at 11.1x. Public Sector Undertaking (PSU) banks such as Canara Bank (P/E ~6.4x), Union Bank (P/E ~7.2x), and Punjab National Bank (P/E ~7.3x) traded at lower multiples.

Commodities Rally on Supply Fears and Deals

Aluminium stocks saw significant upward movement, driven by reported damage to major Middle Eastern smelters like Emirates Global Aluminium and Aluminium Bahrain due to missile and drone attacks on March 28. This event amplified concerns about global supply chains. Hindalco Industries rose approximately 3.02% (P/E ~11.8x), Vedanta gained 3.37% (P/E ~15.3x), and National Aluminium Company (NALCO) led with a 5.53% increase (P/E ~11.0x).

In a contrasting development, Coal India surged about 3.1% to ₹458.85 after announcing it secured a Letter of Award from Telangana Power Generation Corporation for a 750 MWh battery energy storage system project, valued at approximately ₹1,057.09 crore. This move signals diversification beyond its core coal mining operations. The company's market capitalization stood at roughly ₹274,334 Cr, with a P/E ratio between 8.15-9.5x.

PSU Stocks Show Resilience

Select Public Sector Undertakings (PSUs) demonstrated resilience amid the market downturn. The Nifty CPSE index traded higher, outperforming the broader market. Stocks like Oil And Natural Gas Corporation (ONGC) and Bharat Electronics (BEL) were notable contributors. ONGC (Market cap ₹354,701 Cr, P/E ~9.60x) saw its share price rise 4.10% on NSE with a 1-year return of 15.71%. BEL (Market cap ₹291,879 Cr, TTM P/E 49.72) also performed well.

IRB Infrastructure Plans Bonus Issue

IRB Infrastructure Developers saw its stock rise sharply, trading over 10% higher before settling around 9.28% up. This surge followed the company's announcement of a 1:1 bonus issue. The record date for the bonus issue is April 1, 2026, with the ex-bonus date set for March 30, 2026. The company's market capitalization was approximately ₹24,850 Cr.

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