HDFC Bank Secures Q3 Lead
HDFC Bank has emerged with a lead over ICICI Bank following their December quarter earnings. The lender reported a 12% year-on-year increase in profit-after-tax, reaching ₹18,654 crore, surpassing analyst expectations. This performance contrasts sharply with ICICI Bank, which saw its profit-after-tax decline by 4% to ₹11,318 crore.
Provisioning and One-Off Impacts
Both institutions faced additional provisioning requirements mandated by the Reserve Bank of India for loans misclassified under agricultural priority sector lending. However, ICICI Bank's provisions were significantly higher at ₹1,300 crore compared to HDFC Bank's ₹500 crore. HDFC Bank also absorbed ₹800 crore in one-time wage provisions due to new labour codes, but this was offset by ₹900 crore in higher-than-expected trading gains. ICICI Bank, conversely, recorded ₹160 crore in treasury losses and ₹150 crore in wage provisions, further pressuring its results.
Core Business Performance and Margins
While one-off gains skewed the headline numbers, the core business performance showed a narrowing gap. HDFC Bank's net interest margin (NIM) increased by eight basis points sequentially to 3.35%. ICICI Bank's margin faced headwinds from seasonal farm slippages and interest reversals, which impacted loan yields and credit costs, pulling its margin down. Despite ICICI Bank posting stronger net interest income growth at 8% versus HDFC Bank's 6%, HDFC Bank's fee income grew a robust 12%, outpacing ICICI's 6% growth. This resulted in HDFC Bank's core pre-provisioning operating profit (PPOP) growing 8%, exceeding estimates and topping ICICI Bank's 6% growth.
Outlook and Analyst Views
Looking ahead, industry credit growth is projected at 12-13% for FY27, with expectations of margin expansion driven by deposit repricing and lower borrowing costs. HDFC Bank's management is confident of outperforming industry credit growth by 1-3%, citing continued recovery in wholesale credit and potential NIM expansion as policy rate cuts are passed on. ICICI Bank's NIM is expected to remain rangebound. Nuvama Institutional Equities maintains 'buy' ratings on both banks but has cut ICICI Bank's target price to ₹1,670 from ₹1,750, while keeping HDFC Bank's target price at ₹1,170.