HDFC Bank Q3 Profit Jumps; Deposit Growth Remains Key Worry

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AuthorAnanya Iyer|Published at:
HDFC Bank Q3 Profit Jumps; Deposit Growth Remains Key Worry
Overview

HDFC Bank posted an 11.5% year-on-year jump in Q3 FY26 net profit to Rs 18,650 crore, beating analyst expectations. Margins expanded and costs were controlled. Brokerages largely maintained their bullish stances, reiterating buy ratings, but cautioned that moderating deposit growth remains a critical factor for the bank's next phase of re-rating. Key targets range up to Rs 1,240.

Deposit Mobilisation Challenge

While HDFC Bank reported a solid financial quarter, analysts are scrutinizing its ability to attract deposits effectively. The bank's year-on-year deposit growth moderated to 12%, a figure that has raised flags among institutional investors. This slowdown is partly attributed to management's strategic decision to curtail more expensive wholesale deposits. This move, aimed at improving net interest margins (NIMs), succeeded with margins expanding sequentially by 8-10 basis points. However, sustained loan growth hinges on stronger deposit mobilisation.

Brokerage Outlook and Targets

Despite the deposit growth concern, a majority of brokerages reiterated their positive outlook. CLSA maintained an Outperform rating with a price target of Rs 1,200, noting that pre-provision operating profit exceeded estimates due to in-line margins and lower credit costs. Bernstein also upheld an Outperform rating, setting a Rs 1,200 target, citing consistent earnings delivery and improved EPS growth. Jefferies raised its Buy call to Rs 1,240, emphasizing that a pickup in deposit growth is crucial for reducing the loan-to-deposit ratio and enabling a stock re-rating. Kotak Institutional Equities kept an Add rating at Rs 1,050, anticipating that the bank's guidance for above-industry growth in FY27 will necessitate enhanced deposit mobilisation efforts.

Financial Performance Highlights

The bank's standalone net profit climbed 11.5% year-on-year to Rs 18,650 crore for the December quarter of FY26. Net interest income saw a 6.4% increase. Asset quality remained robust, with gross non-performing assets holding steady at 1.24% of total advances. The stock itself has shown resilience, gaining 13.7% over the past year, outperforming the benchmark Nifty 50's sub-11% return during the same period.

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