Global mergers and acquisitions grew 44% to $3.16 trillion in the first half of 2026, led by strategic buyers. While deal-making remains resilient despite geopolitical tension, JPMorgan highlights that investors are shifting focus toward clear returns on AI-related capital spending by 2027.
Global deal-making activity has shown surprising strength in the first half of 2026, defying concerns over ongoing geopolitical conflicts and high interest rates. Data indicates that total global mergers and acquisitions (M&A) volume reached $3.16 trillion in the first six months of the year, representing a 44% increase compared to the same period in 2025.
Strategic Buyers Driving Market Activity
According to Anu Aiyengar, the global chair of Investment Banking at JPMorgan, the current market resilience is largely driven by strategic acquirers rather than financial buyers. Strategic acquirers—large companies looking to buy businesses to improve their own operations—accounted for 78% of the global deal volume. These firms often possess strong cash reserves and direct access to bond markets, allowing them to proceed with expansion plans even when the cost of borrowing remains high for smaller or more debt-reliant players.
The AI Capital Expenditure Challenge
While corporate expansion remains a priority, the massive spending on artificial intelligence has created a new focal point for investors. Estimates for capital spending across the AI ecosystem, including data centers, chips, and energy infrastructure, range between $500 billion and $1 trillion.
For now, many investors have allowed companies significant flexibility in how they deploy this money. However, this period of leniency is likely to reach a limit by 2027. Investors are increasingly looking for concrete evidence that these investments are expanding the total market or improving bottom-line profitability, rather than just serving as expensive technology experiments. Companies that cannot demonstrate clear financial returns from their AI investments by 2027 may face tougher scrutiny from shareholders.
Market Risks and Regulatory Scrutiny
Despite the surge in deals, the path for future growth is not without challenges. Geopolitical instability remains a persistent threat to global investor confidence, potentially disrupting cross-border trade and supply chains. Furthermore, regulators globally have become more active in reviewing large-scale transactions. Increased antitrust scrutiny and government oversight in key industries can delay or block deals, creating execution risk for companies planning major acquisitions.
Additionally, the private credit sector, which saw massive inflows of capital in recent years, is undergoing a necessary period of rationalization. This shift is not necessarily a sign of a looming crisis, but rather a correction as the market adjusts to more realistic liquidity conditions.
For investors, the key monitorables over the coming quarters include the continued volume of large-cap deal announcements and, more importantly, management commentary regarding the financial outcomes of recent AI capital spending. Tracking whether companies can convert these large technological investments into sustainable profit growth will be a crucial indicator of future business value.