Profitability Pressured by Asset Quality Deterioration
CSB Bank's Q3 FY26 results revealed a challenging quarter where robust business expansion was overshadowed by rising provisions and a noticeable slip in asset quality. Net advances surged 28% year-on-year, significantly outpacing industry growth, fueled primarily by a substantial 46% increase in gold loans, which now constitute over half of the bank's loan book. Deposit growth also remained strong at 21% year-on-year, pushing the credit-to-deposit ratio to a high of 92%.
Margin Stability Amidst Rising Costs
Net interest margins (NIM) saw a modest improvement, reaching 3.86% in Q3 FY26, a 5 basis point increase from the previous quarter. However, management anticipates margins will likely remain range-bound between 3.7% and 3.9% in the near term, falling short of earlier guidance. This range-bound outlook is attributed to intense competition for deposits, which limits the reduction in funding costs, even as gold loans continue to yield between 11-11.5% irrespective of rate cycles.
Asset Quality Concerns Surface
The bank experienced a rise in gross and net non-performing assets (NPAs) during the quarter, with slippages concentrated in the SME segment. While the bank expects a significant portion of these slippages to be upgraded in the subsequent quarter and forecasts overall GNPA and NNPA to improve, the increase necessitated sharply higher provisions. Elevated credit costs are a direct consequence of this asset quality strain. Accelerated provisioning policies are also in place to align with upcoming ECL (Expected Credit Loss) norms.
Guidance Shift and Valuation Outlook
Original targets for FY26 return on assets (ROA) of 1.5% and return on equity (ROE) of 15% now appear unlikely to be met. Management projects these return ratios will be achieved in FY27, contingent on a substantial reduction in credit costs. Investments in technology and core banking software have elevated the cost-to-income ratio, expected to remain high in the near term before tapering from FY27 onwards. Trading at approximately 1.3 times its FY27 estimated book value after the recent stock correction, CSB Bank's valuation is considered attractive by some analysts, especially given the growth runway in its gold loan portfolio. However, potential merger talks involving its promoter, Fairfax, add a layer of volatility.