Whalesbook
Strong loan growth at Bank of Baroda is set to be offset by treasury losses and shrinking net interest margins (NIMs) in its financial results for the quarter ending March 31, 2026. The public sector lender is scheduled to announce its audited standalone and consolidated financial results on May 8, 2026.
Brokerages See Strong Loans, But Profit Faces Pressure
Analysts predict strong asset growth, with loans expected to rise by over 16% year-on-year. Nomura forecasts 16% loan growth to ₹14.05 trillion and a 12% increase in deposits to ₹16.48 trillion. However, Net Interest Income (NII) is expected to grow by only about 5% year-on-year to ₹12,120 crore. Net profit is forecast to decline around 5% annually to ₹4,800 crore, largely due to an anticipated 8% drop in pre-provision operating profit (PPOP) from treasury losses.
JM Financial Institutional Securities expects similar trends: 16.2% loan growth and 12% deposit expansion. They estimate NII at ₹11,740 crore (up 6.5% year-on-year), but project net profit to fall 3.7% to ₹4,860 crore. This forecast anticipates significant provision increases, potentially rising by over 64%.
Motilal Oswal Financial Services is more optimistic, expecting just a 2% year-on-year fall in net profit to ₹4,950 crore, with NII rising 5% year-on-year.
Margin Squeeze Continues, Asset Quality Stable
Most analysts predict Net Interest Margins (NIMs) will contract by about 5 basis points quarter-on-quarter, nearing 2.6%. This squeeze stems from repricing of repo and MCLR-linked assets, combined with a steady cost of funds.
Despite profitability pressures, asset quality is expected to remain stable. The Gross Non-Performing Asset (GNPA) ratio is projected to stay steady at 2% sequentially, while the Net Non-Performing Asset (NNPA) ratio is expected around 0.6%.
Mirae Asset Sharekhan forecasts nearly flat year-on-year net profit growth at -0.8%, pointing to higher operating expenses and reduced treasury gains.
Investors will focus on management's commentary regarding deposit growth plans, future NIM trends, and credit cost outlook. The board is also expected to consider a dividend recommendation for fiscal year 2025-26.