Nomura has increased its target price for Ather Energy to ₹1,470, citing strong growth expectations for India's electric two-wheeler market. The brokerage projects a rise in market penetration to 19% by FY30. Investors are watching for the impact of Ather’s upcoming affordable scooter platform, expected in late 2026, on future volume and profitability.
Brokerage firm Nomura has updated its outlook on Ather Energy, raising its target price for the electric two-wheeler manufacturer to ₹1,470. This adjustment follows an analysis of the evolving electric vehicle (EV) sector in India, which the firm expects to undergo significant growth over the next few years. Nomura now estimates that electric two-wheeler adoption could grow to roughly 19% of the total industry by FY30, compared to approximately 6.5% in the current fiscal year.
Strategic Expansion and Product Pipeline
Ather Energy is currently planning to expand its reach by targeting the mass-market price segment of ₹1 lakh to ₹1.25 lakh, a category that represents nearly 45% of total industry demand. The company intends to introduce an affordable scooter built on its new EL platform starting in the third quarter of FY27. This expansion is supported by new manufacturing capacity, which is intended to resolve current supply constraints that have historically limited the company's ability to meet market demand. Furthermore, the company is developing a motorcycle platform, which represents a potential avenue for additional growth in the coming years.
Financial Projections and Profitability
Nomura’s financial models for Ather Energy incorporate ambitious volume growth, with estimates set at 3.99 lakh units for FY27, representing a 53% increase year-on-year. Looking further ahead, the firm projects volumes to reach 6.22 lakh units in FY28 and 8.24 lakh units in FY29. While the company is currently operating at negative EBITDA margins, analysts expect these to improve to 5.1% by FY29. The brokerage also highlights the potential for the company to achieve profit after tax (PAT) breakeven in FY29, supported by operational efficiencies and the conclusion of production-linked incentive (PLI) schemes that currently benefit various competitors.
Sector Context and Investor Monitorables
The EV industry faces various risks, including the potential for shifting consumer preference if fuel prices remain stable or decrease, which could moderate the speed of EV adoption. Additionally, the company's long-term profitability depends on its ability to successfully transition from a premium-only brand to a mass-market player without diluting its margins. Investors may monitor the upcoming launch of the EL platform, as its execution and consumer acceptance will be critical in determining whether the company can maintain its market share against increased competition. The final trajectory of margins and volume growth will also remain dependent on the broader regulatory environment and the effectiveness of current government incentives for the electric mobility sector.