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Bajaj Auto's expected Q4FY26 revenue surge is driven by strong volume growth and strategic pricing. The global two-wheeler market, forecast to grow at a CAGR of 5.9% from 2026 to 2035 with motorcycles making up 81% of sales, offers a positive environment. India's auto retail sector also started 2026 with strong year-on-year growth, particularly in two-wheeler sales in January 2026. This broad demand, combined with Bajaj Auto's stronger export mix, should lead to impressive revenue figures. The company's market value is around ₹2,79,330.10 crore, with its stock trading near ₹9,994 on April 30, 2026, supported by daily trading volumes exceeding 1.2 million shares.
Despite revenue optimism, Bajaj Auto's profitability outlook is mixed. While some analysts expect a modest year-on-year improvement in EBITDA margins by up to 46 basis points, others foresee a slight drop of about 14-20 basis points. This potential margin compression stems from rising costs for raw materials, freight, and production. These pressures may partly offset gains from efficiency improvements, favorable foreign exchange rates, and a better product mix. For comparison, EBITDA margins were 20.17% in Q4 FY25, with current estimates for Q4 FY26 around 20.6%. This shows the difficulty in maintaining profitability as input costs climb.
Bajaj Auto operates in a competitive market, with its stock currently trading at a P/E ratio of about 28.36 to 30.61. This is much lower than TVS Motor's P/E range of 58.7 to 81.07, but higher than Hero MotoCorp's 17.47 to 20.63. However, Bajaj Auto's domestic motorcycle market share has fallen from 18.5% in FY20 to around 16% year-to-date in FY26. This decline is especially noticeable in the 125cc and above segments, where TVS Motor has gained ground. Hero MotoCorp is also facing difficulties, with its stock down 36% in the past year. This means that while Bajaj Auto's valuation may seem fair next to TVS Motor, its shrinking domestic market share is a major concern.
Several factors merit attention. Bajaj Auto's declining domestic motorcycle market share, particularly in higher-displacement segments, is a persistent concern, with TVS Motor making gains. The company's highly anticipated CNG motorcycle, 'Freedom', has seen slower progress than originally planned. Although Bajaj Auto leads in the electric two-wheeler market, fast EV adoption and competition from players like Ola Electric and TVS Motor require constant innovation. Relying heavily on exports also means Bajaj faces risks from currency fluctuations and geopolitical issues. Notably, Bajaj Auto's stock fell over 2% after its Q4 FY25 earnings report, even with profit growth, showing that strong results don't always lead to a stock price increase. Some analysts still view its P/E ratio as high, despite being lower than TVS Motor's.
Looking forward, most analysts remain positive on Bajaj Auto, with 'Buy' ratings and average price targets ranging from ₹10,124 to ₹10,352. They forecast annual earnings growth of about 12.1% and revenue growth of 9.2% over the next three years. For Q4 FY2026, revenue is expected between ₹13,200–13,800 crore, with net profit (PAT) projected at ₹1,650–1,800 crore. While continued growth is anticipated, Bajaj Auto's success in regaining domestic market share and effectively managing rising input costs will be key to reaching these growth goals and supporting its stock price.