Resumption of Exports

The restart of Indian wheat exports, starting with ITC's shipment to the UAE, shows the government aims to use its strong domestic supply. However, the economic reality is that India faces a significant price disadvantage, which will likely limit its market to buyers needing immediate supplies rather than large, long-term deals.

Government Lifts Ban for Controlled Exports

India has officially restarted wheat exports, ending a ban in place since May 2022 over concerns about domestic food security and inflation. The government has approved up to 5 million metric tons of wheat and 1 million tons of wheat products for export, with recent permits adding 2.5 million tons by April 2026. ITC, a major conglomerate, loaded 22,000 metric tons of wheat at Kandla port for the UAE, reportedly priced at $275 per ton free on board (FOB). This follows a strong harvest thanks to good weather, rebuilding reserves and giving the government confidence to allow exports. The government is managing this controlled reopening through specific agencies and agreements.

Price Disadvantage Emerges

Despite the government's efforts, a surge in Indian wheat exports faces challenges. Concerns over recent crop damage have pushed domestic prices higher. Trade sources say wheat from Australia and the Black Sea region costs about $290-$300 per ton on a cost, insurance, and freight (CIF) basis. This makes Indian wheat at least $20 per ton more expensive, a major hurdle for buyers who can easily get cheaper wheat from these suppliers.

Global Market Pressures Affect Trade

The global agricultural market is also affected by higher shipping costs and geopolitical issues. The conflict in the Middle East has increased shipping expenses and influenced commodity markets, from energy to fertilizers. Rising fertilizer prices due to disrupted supply chains risk future crop yields and raise costs for farmers worldwide. Although the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) forecasts global wheat production for 2025-26 to reach a record 844.2 million metric tons, these wider factors add uncertainty. The UAE, the destination for ITC's shipment, is actively involved in agricultural innovation and trade.

Limited Demand Due to High Prices

The main reason India's wheat exports are unlikely to surge is price. Buyers needing supplies quickly, within 30-45 days, might consider Indian wheat. However, countries with existing contracts or plenty of cheaper wheat from Australia, Argentina, or the Black Sea region will likely avoid Indian offers due to the higher price. India once aimed to be a major wheat exporter, seeing strong growth before the 2022 ban. But today, high global prices, rising domestic costs, and increased shipping expenses mean demand will likely remain limited to specific, urgent needs.

ITC's Role in Agri Business

Wheat exports are part of ITC's larger Agri Business. As of May 2026, ITC's market value was about ₹3.93 trillion INR, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio between 11.16 and 11.36. While ITC is known for cigarettes and other consumer goods, its agriculture division shows its ability to trade commodities, following current market conditions.

Outlook for Indian Wheat Exports

Indian wheat exports are likely to stay limited by price. Expect more small shipments for immediate needs, rather than a major change in global supply. India's competitiveness will hinge on stabilizing domestic prices and any changes in global shipping and input costs. Global production forecasts, meanwhile, point to ample overall supply.