The Coffee Board projects India's 2026-27 coffee output at 4.04 lakh tonnes, an 8% increase from last season. While Karnataka and Kerala drive these gains, divergent forecasts from the USDA highlight potential weather-related risks for investors to track.
India's coffee production is set for a recovery in the 2026-27 crop year, according to the Coffee Board’s initial post-blossom estimate. The board anticipates a total harvest of 4.04 lakh tonnes, reflecting an 8% increase over the 3.73 lakh tonnes recorded in the 2025-26 season. This early forecast is primarily based on favorable flowering patterns triggered by recent pre-monsoon showers in key plantation regions.
Regional and Varietal Growth Trends
The projected growth is broad-based, spanning both major coffee varieties. Arabica production is expected to reach 1.2 lakh tonnes, compared to 1.11 lakh tonnes in the previous cycle. Meanwhile, Robusta, which represents the majority of India's coffee output, is estimated to hit 2.84 lakh tonnes, up from 2.62 lakh tonnes.
Karnataka remains the backbone of the domestic coffee industry. The state is expected to contribute 2.79 lakh tonnes to the national total, led by strong performance in the Kodagu, Chikkamagaluru, and Hassan districts. Kerala is also forecasted to see an output increase to 84,570 tonnes, driven by higher Robusta yields in Wayanad. Additionally, non-traditional coffee-growing areas in states like Andhra Pradesh and Odisha are showing signs of rising production, which could eventually provide more geographic diversity to India's supply base.
Monitoring Weather and Export Impacts
While the Coffee Board remains optimistic, international observers maintain a more cautious stance. The US Department of Agriculture’s Foreign Agricultural Service has forecasted a potential 4% year-on-year decline, estimating output at 3.68 lakh tonnes. This discrepancy is largely attributed to differing views on weather risks, particularly the impact of high temperatures and uneven monsoon distribution on sensitive Arabica crops.
For investors, the contrast between these two forecasts underscores the vulnerability of coffee plantations to climate variability. While Robusta beans are considered more resilient, prolonged heat stress remains a risk factor for overall quality and yield. Since India exports a significant portion of its coffee production, shifts in domestic output levels directly influence export volumes and global price competitiveness.
Investors may track upcoming updates from the Coffee Board regarding the actual progress of the monsoon, as these figures are often adjusted following the monsoon season. Any material deviation from the current positive forecast could lead to price volatility in the coffee sector, impacting the margins of companies involved in coffee processing and trading.