India's Deep Reliance on Imported Fertilizers

The conflict in West Asia has worsened India's deep reliance on imported fertilizers and the key ingredients needed to make them. India's farms depend on the Gulf region for about 30% of their urea and diammonium phosphate (DAP) imports, leading to a significant supply shortage. This region also supplies roughly 50% of India's Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG), the main fuel for urea production. The conflict has already pushed up global natural gas prices by an estimated 20-30%, increasing the cost of producing urea by another 15-20%.

Soaring Demand Outpaces Domestic Fertilizer Production

India has become the world's second-largest fertilizer consumer, a major shift from decades ago, due to its agricultural policies. Total fertilizer use has jumped from just 0.295 million tonnes in 1960-61 to an estimated 32.93 million tonnes for 2024-25. This means fertilizer use per hectare has soared from 1.92 kg to 150.11 kg, an increase of over 78 times. While India produced a record 21.95 million tonnes of fertilizer in 2023-24, this is far below the projected demand of 39 million tonnes by 2026. This growing gap requires a rethink of long-term plans.

High Costs Hamper Domestic Production Efforts

The West Asia crisis has already cut India's daily urea production by an estimated 30,000-35,000 tonnes. The government aims to increase output to 67,000 tonnes daily, but this plan is costly, requiring expensive natural gas bought on the spot market to cover the immediate shortage. In contrast, countries like China have invested heavily in domestic fertilizer production over the last decade, aiming for near self-sufficiency with government support and new technologies. India's strategy has focused more on subsidies than building extensive domestic capacity, a policy that failed to prevent farmer unrest during price spikes in the late 1990s.

Structural Weaknesses Fuel Supply Risks

This crisis highlights deep-rooted structural problems. Relying on volatile spot market gas is costly and unsustainable. Experts point out that these quick fixes don't solve the main issue: a permanent gap between domestic production and demand, and too few import sources. Reports of damage to fertilizer production facilities in the Gulf suggest supplies won't recover quickly, increasing the risk of panic buying before the June kharif planting season. Additionally, farmers applied nutrients in a highly unbalanced ratio of 11.6:4.6:1 in 2023-24, far from the recommended 4:2:1. This points to overusing urea, which harms soil health and causes nutrient deficiencies.

Strategies for Long-Term Food Security

Solving this requires a comprehensive strategy. Farmers need guidance on using fertilizers wisely. Encouraging them to grow crops like pulses and oilseeds, which need less fertilizer, could ease pressure on nitrogen supplies. This might involve incentives for shifting away from crops like rice and wheat that use a lot of urea. The government is promoting Single Superphosphate (SSP) and Triple Superphosphate (TSP) as alternatives to DAP, especially in major farming states, and this needs to be actively supported. Limiting fertilizer supply based on farming area could also help manage urea shortages. Promoting nano-urea, which is more efficient and cuts costs, is now essential. Building lasting resilience means speeding up the use of organic farming and Zero Budget Natural Farming (ZBNF) to lessen dependence on chemical imports and ensure food security against future global shocks.