Vodafone Idea Faces Steep Subscriber Loss, Trend Reversal Expected

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AuthorAarav Shah|Published at:
Vodafone Idea Faces Steep Subscriber Loss, Trend Reversal Expected
Overview

Vodafone Idea (Vi) is projected to lose approximately 3.5 million subscribers in the October-December 2025 quarter, a significant increase from previous periods. This reverses a nine-month trend of narrowing declines, despite ongoing investments in its 4G and 5G networks. The subscriber churn is expected to benefit rivals Reliance Jio and Bharti Airtel, which are anticipated to add millions of new users.

Subscriber Churn Accelerates

Vodafone Idea (Vi) is bracing for a substantial increase in subscriber losses, with market trackers estimating a deficit of about 3.5 million users in the fiscal third quarter ending December 2025. This marks a sharp escalation from the 1 million lost in the prior quarter and 0.5 million in the quarter before that, effectively snapping a nine-month period of moderating declines.

Rivals Poised for Gains

The anticipated subscriber exodus from Vi is expected to directly benefit competitors Reliance Jio and Bharti Airtel. Analysts forecast that Reliance Jio could add approximately 8.4 million subscribers, potentially pushing its user base past the 500 million mark again to reach 515 million. Bharti Airtel is projected to see robust net additions of around 3.3 million users, expanding its base to 367 million.

ARPU Stagnation Expected

Across the board, telecom operators are expected to report marginal growth in average revenue per user (ARPU). Projections suggest increases ranging from 0.4% to 1.1%, with Bharti Airtel's ARPU potentially reaching ₹259, Jio's ₹212.4, and Vi's ₹169. Brokerage firm Morgan Stanley noted that Airtel's ARPU could be boosted by upgrades from 2G to 4G and prepaid to postpaid plans, alongside better data monetization.

Financial Outlook Diverges

Reliance Jio is anticipated to lead in revenue growth, with a sequential increase of 2.1% to ₹33,128 crore in the December quarter. Its net profit is estimated to rise by 4.2% to ₹7,264 crore. Bharti Airtel's wireless business is expected to post 1.7% revenue growth, reaching ₹28,599 crore, with an overall net profit of ₹6,869 crore. Vi's financial outlook remains challenging, with revenues projected to be largely flat at ₹11,189 crore and net losses widening by an estimated 26% to ₹6,987 crore.

Vi's Uncertain Future

Nuvama Wealth Management highlighted that Vi's performance trajectory hinges on critical factors such as its 5G rollout progress, successful fundraising, and the resolution of its Adjusted Gross Revenue (AGR) dues. While the government recently approved a five-year moratorium on AGR payments for Vi until FY30, the company faces significant operational and financial hurdles.

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