Brokerage Initiates Coverage on Packaged Food Stocks
Brokerage firm Motilal Oswal has initiated coverage on four Indian consumer processed food stocks, flagging Bikaji Foods Ltd., Gopal Snacks Ltd., and Prataap Snacks Ltd. for substantial upside potential, estimating gains of up to 26%. Mrs. Bectors Food Specialties Ltd. received a 'neutral' rating from the firm.
Sector Growth Outlook
The Indian food and food processing sector, valued at ₹86.8 lakh crore in FY24, is forecast to expand to ₹109.6 lakh crore by FY27. The food processing industry, representing 35% of the total food sector, is expected to achieve a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 9.7% from FY24 to FY27. Packaged foods constitute 30-32% of this industry, with an anticipated 11% CAGR.
Packaged Food Market Dynamics
Within packaged foods, the 'other packaged food' segment, including savoury snacks and biscuits, is a key growth driver. This market is estimated at ₹36 lakh crore in FY24 and projected to reach ₹63 lakh crore by FY29, exhibiting an 11.6% CAGR. Motilal Oswal attributes this expansion to changing lifestyles, urbanization, and the rise of nuclear families.
Organized Players' Opportunity
Despite the sector's growth, it remains largely unorganized, with organized players holding significant opportunities to capture market share. The savoury snacks and biscuits categories are identified as the largest, with expected CAGRs of 9% and 7% respectively from FY25 to FY29. Analysts see a trend of formalization, similar to the biscuit sector's transformation over the past two decades, now occurring in savoury snacks.
Company-Specific Targets
Motilal Oswal has set a price target of ₹900 for Bikaji Foods (26% upside) and ₹400 for Gopal Snacks (24.5% upside). Prataap Snacks is targeted at ₹1,500, representing a 25.5% potential gain. Mrs. Bectors Food Specialties has a target of ₹280 with a 16.8% upside. The brokerage projects strong revenue and profit growth for the 'buy' rated stocks.
Key Risks
Investors should note potential headwinds, including weak macroeconomic conditions impacting consumer spending, volatility in raw material costs, and intensifying competition from both organized and unorganized players.